Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China imported a seasonal low of 4 million metric tons of soybeans in March 2026, slightly higher than 3.5 mmt imported in March last year. Detailed data on origins of imports have not yet been released. As an earlier post noted, soybean supplies in China are relatively tight but imports are expected to surge higher in April and May as more Brazilian soybeans arrive. China Customs Administration reports. Imports in 2026 are very close to the volume imported a year ago. The cumulative January-March 2026 import total of 16.57 mmt is 3.1% less than the 17.1 mmt for the same period in 2025. China's imports of cereal grains in March totaled 3.3 mmt, up from 1.85 mmt a year earlier. Cumulative cereal grain imports for January-March of 8.6 mmt are 3 mmt more than the same period in 2025. Grain imports do not have the strong seasonal pattern displayed by soybean imports. Grain imports are not broken out by detailed categories yet.  China Customs Administration reports.

 China imported 12.28 million metric tons of soybeans in August 2025. This is the fourth month in a row of record or near-record imports since South American beans began arriving in large quantities in May.  With one month left in the marketing year, China's cumulative total of imports for 2024/25 is 96.5 mmt (about 3 percent more than the same period in 2023/24). It looks likely that China will equal or surpass last year's 105 mmt market year soybean import total.  Source: China customs data. China's customs administration has not released August data by trade partner, but it is likely that nearly all of these imports came from South America. With minimal amounts of U.S. soybeans expected to arrive in August or September, China's total imports of U.S. soybeans are likely to hit 24.2 mmt, a market share of about 23 percent.  Soybean imports are not likely to be sustained at this torrid pace in the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year as the northern hemisphere harvest pro...

China's agricultural imports during May and June 2025 were nearly identical to year-earlier values. June 2025 agricultural imports totaled $18.5 billion, up 1.9 percent from June of last year, according to data posted on the China Customs Administration web site today. May imports had been up 0.8 percent from a year earlier. The May-June 2025 pace was a reversal of the first four months of 2025 when agricultural imports fell behind last year's values.  Data from China customs administration web site. Data for major commodity categories show that the volume of June fruit and nut imports was up 43 percent, while meat imports were up 5 percent from a year ago. Imports of soybeans and grains continued moving in opposite directions. Soybean imports totaled 12.264 million metric tons in June, up 8 percent from a year ago, but imports of grain totaled 2.1 million metric tons, down from 47 percent June last year. Imports of edible oils were down 14 percent.  China's soybean imports...

China's imports of agricultural products during May 2025 totaled $19.9 billion, almost the same as its imports in May last year, according to Chinese customs data. May was the first month in 2025 that Chinas' agricultural imports did not decrease from a year earlier. China customs administration definition of "agricultural." The most prominent changes in China's May 2025 agricultural import bill from a year ago were a $1.13-billion increase in soybean purchases that was offset by a $902-million decrease in cereal grain imports, and a $473-million plunge in cotton imports. Imports of sugar, fats and oils, dairy, cassava, and seafood were up. Imports of fruit, nuts and meat were down year-on-year. Calculated from China Customs Administration data. China's imports of Brazilian soybeans soared to 12 million metric tons in May as seasonal arrivals from South America ramped up and inspections at the border accelerated. The May soybean import volume was up almost 3-f...

Customs data show that China's April 2025 soybean imports were 6.08 million metric tons (mmt), down 29 percent from a year ago and the lowest April volume in years. This follows a March import volume of just 3.5 million metric tons. The low volumes reflect stringent customs inspections that slowed unloading of vessels already at Chinese ports.  China customs administration data The year-on-year decline in soybean imports occurred for both U.S. and Brazilian soybeans. Brazil typically becomes the dominant supplier in April. Customs data showed 4.6 mmt of Brazilian soybean imports and 1.38 mmt of U.S. soybean imports during April 2025. With the shift to Brazilian soybeans inspections have sped up this month and soybean crushers have ramped up operations. Soybean meal prices have dropped from near RMB 4000 in late April to just above RMB 3000 this week. Some feed mills are cutting feed prices due to the reduced cost of soybean meal. Soybean imports are expected to rebound to 12-t...

For decades Chinese leaders have been clamoring to "diversify" imports of agricultural products to reduce reliance on the United States. Having experienced the trade war with China 7 years ago, U.S. commodity producers have also declared their eagerness to diversify their export markets. Both diversifications are tough going because Brazil is the only real alternative supplier with capacity to supply China's gargantuan import needs. Likewise, alternative markets are not large enough to absorb the volume of U.S. soybeans sold to China.  China has been importing enormous quantities of Brazilian soybeans. In calendar year 2024 China boosted its imports of Brazilian soybeans to nearly 75 mmt--over 70% of the total. China imported only 22 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans from the U.S. last year, but it's hard to see how those beans could be replaced. No other country shows signs of sustained growth as a soybean supplier to China. Imports from Argentina have been up an...

China says it is prepared to decouple from the U.S. in agricultural trade as it "diversifies" its trading partners, but this “opportunity” comes with some “risks.” On April 23, a bombastic Chinese news article cited purchases of 40 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans to prove that “ Americans Need to Know: Chinese People are Really Not Afraid of Decoupling from the United States .” The article asserted that the United States would be harmed more than China by decoupling and insisted that American farmers are “desperate” and “the public is panicking.” On April 13 " Chinese Soybeans Take the Lead in Decoupling and Supply Chain Reconstruction Under Trade Friction " announced that China is ready for "complete decoupling." This article also boasted that China is expanding domestic soybean production and claimed that Brazil is a "safer and more friendly partner" with cheaper soybeans that purportedly have a higher oil and protein content and fewer impuri...

  China's Peoples Daily warned that a trade war could destroy the foundation of China-U.S. agricultural cooperation. An April 2 opinion piece praised the mutual complementarities in agricultural trade between the two countries, pointing out that U.S. agricultural products fulfill demands in the China market while also driving industry development and farm income growth in the United States.  The article blames the U.S. for impacts on U.S. farmers expected to result from China's imposition of  tariffs that specifically target U.S. agricultural products in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. On its face, the article seems to be aimed at the Trump administration, but it seems unlikely that Trump administration officials will read a Chinese language article in a publication whose readership is primarily communist party officials. Chinese officials have already decided to impose tariffs aimed at farm products, so who is this article trying to convince?  T...

China's first customs data for 2025 feature a 97-percent decline in corn and wheat imports from a year earlier. Soybean imports were up slightly by volume (but down in value), and dairy, pork, poultry, and seafood imports rebounded year-on-year. Life was less sweet in China with a 93.7% decline in sugar imports, and drinking appears to be up as wine and beer imports posted gains.   China's agricultural imports for January-February 2025 were down 14.7 percent from a year earlier. The value of farm and food goods imported for the first two months of 2025 totaled $30.7 billion, down $5.26 billion from the same period in 2024. China's exports of agricultural products during January-February totaled $15.2 billion, up $393 million from a year earlier.  Data from China Customs Administration website. As usual, soybeans were the largest component of China's agricultural imports during January-February 2025 with a value of $6.3 billion. Meat imports were valued at $4.1 billion, ...

(see  update of 10-percent tariff list ) China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products today that will be added to imports of products that accounted for about $19.5 billion of Chinese imports of farm goods from the United States last year. Based on calendar-year 2024 import data from China's Customs Administration web site, 15-percemt tariffs will be added to $3.43 billion worth of U.S. agricultural imports and 10-percent tariffs will be added to $16.06 billion of U.S. agricultural imports. Among the $3.4 billion in U.S. products targeted for  15-percent tariffs , cotton, corn, wheat and chicken accounted for most of the imports from the United States last year. According to China's Customs Administration, calendar year imports from the United States were as follows: Cotton imports from the United States totaled $1.85 billion, comprising 35% of China's cotton imports last year.  Wheat imports from the U.S. totaled $600 million, 17% of the total. Cor...

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...