Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

A trade war "wake-up call" has prompted strong support for soybean production from Chinese officials in 2019, according to one article posted on Chinese feed industry web sites . The Chinese government has recently circulated a document calling for increased soybean production and higher subsidies for soybean farmers. A second article circulating last week included a scan of a Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) "letter of opinion" launching a "soybean revitalization plan" and reported on a meeting of Heilongjiang Province communist party officials discussing the importance of boosting soybean production to give China greater power in trade negotiations. The document is being passed around in the soybean industry but is not public. January 15 letter of opinion from MARA crop management office  calling for soybean revitalization program in northeastern provinces in 2019.  The MARA document reportedly sets goals of increasing area pl...

Chinese officials insist the African swine fever (ASF) is under control, but many say the disease is much more widespread than indicated by the 100-plus officially confirmed cases. The Chinese pork industry has been disrupted by plunging prices during 2018, an ongoing environmental campaign to close polluting farms, and the rapid spread of ASF to 25 provinces in six months. Officials are circling the wagons and denying the problem is out of control, but reports of panic-slaughter and expectations of tight supplies and rising prices later in 2019 occasionally filter through. Echoing a series of statements from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officials this month, an Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center researcher insisted that ASF is under control and assured the public that officials follow strict procedures when the virus is discovered, closing down shipments of swine, depopulating and disinfecting farms, and conducting epidemiological investigations. The Disease...

China relied on Brazil for 77 percent of its December 2018 soybean imports, close to Brazil's 75-percent share for calendar year 2018. China's reduced imports of U.S. soybeans during 2018 slightly exceeded its increased imports of Brazilian beans. No new suppliers filled the gap left by China's shunning of U.S. soybeans during 2018. Overall, China's imports of soybeans fell by 7.5 mmt for the calendar year. China soybean imports, December 2018 Imported  from: December 2018 y-o-y change Jan-Dec 2018 y-o-y change 1,000 metric tons Brazil 4,386 2,444 66,082 15,156 United States 69 -6,120 16,640 -16,212 Canada 808 282 1,792 -257 Argentina 187 -453 1,464 -5,119 Uruguay 185 32 1,199 -1,373 Russia 84 -6 816 309 Kazakhstan 0 -2 17 10 Ethiopia 0 -2 18 3 Ukraine 0 184 1 16...

China's December 2018 agricultural imports were down 9 percent year-on-year. Impacts of the trade war peaked during the month as the value of agricultural products arriving from the United States plummeted 80 percent year-on-year. Imports of several feedstuffs and industrial raw materials from all trade partners plunged. Robust demand for commodities such as beef, dairy, fruit and nuts contributed to 9-percent growth in the overall value of China's agricultural imports for the entire 2018 calendar year. December 2018 data from China Customs Administration's monthly bulletin released today indicate China imported about $11.5 billion worth of agricultural and food items during the month (down 9 percent from a year earlier). The calendar year total was $145.2 billion (up 9 percent from a year earlier). China agricultural imports by value, December 2018 Item December 2018 y-o-y  change January-December 2018 y-o-y  cha...