Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China projected that its imports of farm commodities will decline over the next decade, the mirror image of USDA predictions that China's imports will keep growing.  China's Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and USDA both release 10-year projections of Chinese agricultural supply and demand at their outlook conferences each year. USDA released its projections to 2033/34 for China (and for all other countries) at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. USDA projections are available online. CAAS released its projections this week at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs China Agricultural Outlook meeting in Beijing. CAAS's projections were predictably bullish on China's grain production outlook. CAAS predicts that grain output will rise from 695 million metric tons last year to 704 million metric tons in 2024 and to 766 million metric tons in the 2033/34 marketing year. The 71-million-ton increase would easily meet China's target of increasing ...

Disease is the biggest of 10 problems facing China's pig farms according to a 2023 article in the Chinese industry periodical Pigs Today  ( 今日养猪业) . The author, a member of a swine industry commission, identified a cocktail of viruses and bacterial infections that keep nearly all swine herds unhealthy. Another article in the same issue focused on disease problems listed the same diseases, warned that diseases are becoming more common, new virus strains are appearing, and pigs are periodically poisoned by mycotoxins in feed.  Moreover, disease contributes to other problems identified by the Pigs Today author. Diseases undermine productivity, raise production costs, reduce the Chinese industry's international competitiveness, contribute to overuse of antibiotics, and epidemics are usually the cause of cyclical gyrations in the industry. The pig-problem author pointed to African swine fever (ASF) as the most harmful disease and described the ASF situation as severe--even though ...

China launched a crackdown on illegal practices in livestock production last week. The 8-month campaign will address problems that have persisted for decades:  Illegal use of muscle-promoting chemicals like clenbuterol Trading in meat from animals that died of disease Operation of illegal slaughter facilities  Injection of water, medications or other substances into animals before slaughter Production and sale of counterfeit beef, mutton, and donkey meat products Use or sale of livestock and poultry products of unknown origin lacking inspection certificates According to the April 4, 2024 announcement on China Central TV (CCTV), the State Council's Food Safety Office, the Public Security Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and State Administration of Market Supervision issued a circular ordering local officials to carry out an 8-month "special rectification" targeting illegal behavior in meat production.  Comments posted on "The Paper's" announ...