Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

When China says it is "diversifying" its sources of agricultural imports, it really means they are shifting purchases from the United States to Brazil. During calendar year 2023 Brazil had a 27-percent share of China's agricultural imports while the United States had a 15-percent share. This reversed the two countries' positions back in 2014 when the U.S. share was 24 percent and Brazil's was 19 percent.  Source: Analysis of China customs data Brazil had a 69-percent share of China's soybean imports in 2023, up from 62 percent the previous year. Brazil's share of corn imports went from 0 to 47 percent in one year after China approved Brazil as a corn supplier in late 2022. Brazil's share of China's sugar imports was 50 percent, and Brazil's shares were 46 percent for poultry, 41 percent for beef, 28 percent for pork, and 28 percent for cotton.  Other countries that were leading suppliers of China's agricultural imports included Thailand, Au...

China's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian met U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack in Washington January 18 to resume the Joint Committee on Cooperation in Agriculture (JCCA), a forum for discussing exchanges between the United States and China that had been dormant since 2015. During the same trip Tang also visited Mexico and the Dominican Republic to discuss closer agricultural exchanges with developing countries on the U.S. doorstep. Chinese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian met U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack January 18. Source: China MARA . In the official USDA news release  about his meeting with Minister Tang, Secretary Vilsack emphasized China's role as an export market, noting that he discussed market access issues with Minister Tang and expressed hope that the bilateral relationship will expand and improve market access opportunities for U.S. farmers and ranchers in China. The USDA statement also said discussion...

China increased its pork output in 2023 to a near-record level. But prices plummeted, indicating the market didn't want that much pork. Analysts say the industry needs to downsize, but companies backed by friendly banks and officials are content to burn through cash until prices pop again. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that 726.6 million hogs were slaughtered in China during 2023, a 3.8-percent increase from 2022. The volume of pork produced was 57.94 million metric tons, a 4.6-percent increase from 2022.  Last year's pork output was the largest reported in the Bureau's statistics since 2014. It exceeded the target of 55 million metric tons for 2025 set by the 5-year plan. Hog slaughter was the third highest ever reported. The only time China slaughtered more hogs was during 2013-14. The numbers imply 79.7 kg of meat per hog, a 500-gram increase from the previous year and 2-kg more than in 2014. Heavier hogs are consistent with reports of widespread ...

Farmland protection and upgrades, food supply diversification, science and technology, disaster prevention and recovery, and preventing poor areas from falling back into poverty were the "clear requirements" ordered by Xi Jinping for 2024 at China's "rural work meeting" for 2024 held last month in Beijing. Xi Jinping's effort to present himself as Mao's successor can be detected in the meeting's revivals of Mao-era approaches to reconfiguring the countryside and keeping it under control. The meeting celebrated "overcoming" "serious" natural disasters last year, producing another record grain crop, rapid income growth for farmers, and harmonious, stable rural society. That probably means none of those things actually happened and communist leaders are worried that the countryside could spin out of control.  Working for food self-sufficiency was a clear theme. The meeting demanded that officials at all levels pledge to prevent farml...

China's pork consumption is outperforming other types of animal protein, according to the country's household survey--a result that seems inconsistent with depressed prices in the country's pork industry. The survey data from 2013 to 2022 show a dip in pork consumption during 2020 when China had a severe pork shortage due to an African swine fever outbreak. Then pork consumption snapped back in 2021 as the sector recovered and rose even higher in 2022--a year when much of the country was under lockdown. The recent strong growth contrasts with flat consumption from 2013 to 2018. Source: China national household survey data compiled from China Statistical Yearbooks. China's consumption of other animal proteins is generally on the rise too, but quantities are smaller than for pork.  Poultry consumption rose by 3.7 kg/person in 2020 as consumers sought out substitutes for expensive pork that year. Since then poultry consumption has dropped by 1 kg but is still higher than a...