Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China is gearing up to grow food in its deserts, on its mountains and in the ocean. Propagandists show beautiful pictures and recite fake statistics, but no outsiders will be allowed to monitor these ecologically risky ventures. The plan envisions chains of mechanized farms and fisheries feeding warehouses, processing plants, and retailers controlled by industrial conglomerates to replace chaotic hordes of impoverished aging peasants, nomads, fishing boats and mountain dwellers collecting wild plants.  The 2025 communist party "Document No. 1" on rural policy priorities called for building "a diversified food supply system" by building deep-sea "marine ranches", creating "forest granaries" in mountainous areas, improve the edible fungus industry, and promote the cultivation of algae as part of China's "big food concept" and "big agriculture concept." These will likely be included in new 5-year plans to be issued in 2026. ...

Subsidies prompted record-high cotton planting in China's Xinjiang region this year despite declining farm prices. Imports of cotton from Brazil fell dramatically. Imports from China's new friends in Africa and Central Asia also plummeted. U.S. cotton has been mostly frozen out of China's market since the trade war began. China's 2025 cotton output reached 6.641 million metric tons, up 477,000 metric tons from the previous year, a 7.7% increase. The increase in output reflected a 5% increase in area planted (up 140,900 hectares) and a 2.6% increase in yield (up 57.4 kg/ha). Data were released by China's National Bureau of Statistics in the  2025 cotton production communique .  This year was China's second successive annual increase in cotton production and the highest value since output dropped below 7 mmt in 2009. China's record cotton production was 7.6 mmt in 2007. Xinjiang Autonomous Region accounted for all of the boost in China's cotton output. Xin...

China's soybean imports dipped to 8.1 million metric tons in November 2025, and the calendar year total for January-November hit 103.79 mmt. November 2025 imports were up from 7.15 mmt from a year ago, and January-November 2025 imports are up from last year's pace of 97.1 mmt during the same period. November's import volume was the second monthly decline in a row, reflecting seasonal decline in shipments from Brazil. In November China imported 5.85 mmt from Brazil, down from nearly 11 mmt in September 2025. Brazil supplied 72% of China's November soybean imports. Imports from Argentina increased marginally to 1.78 mmt in November, while imports from Canada increased slightly to 16,630 metric tons. Imports from Uruguay, Russia and Ukraine dropped in November. China had no imports of U.S. soybeans during November. The first shipments of U.S. beans since the resumption of purchases last month likely will show up in Chinese customs data in January.  Compiled from China Cust...

Sinograin's second auction of imported soybeans on December 16 received a less enthusiastic response than the December 11 auction. The percentage of beans sold declined to 62% and the average price declined to RMB 3852 per metric ton. A cumulative 720,000 metric tons have been sold in the first two auctions.  Chinese commentary attributes the auctions to Sinograin's need to relieve storage pressure as large volumes of U.S. soybeans purchased are expected to arrive. It also cites a need to generate funds for purchases of American soybeans. The second objective will be challenging if Sinograin has to pay off loans that financed purchase of these soybeans at peak prices 2-to-3 years ago. The next auction is scheduled for December 19 when 550,000 metric tons will be offered. The auctions are composed predominantly of soybeans imported during years of much higher prices in 2022 and 2023. Auctions of imported soybeans held in March also featured soybeans from 2022-23, but auctions he...

The U.S. soybeans "China" has been buying over the last two months will apparently go directly into China's State reserve. Old beans are being auctioned off from reserves to make room for the new beans. The old beans are being offered to processors at bargain prices to give them some relief from negative margins as they await the arrival of another monster Brazilian crop that will drive market prices down again. On December 11  China auctioned 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans from its State reserves to make room for U.S. soybeans that China has been buying to fulfill its part of the U.S.-China trade agreement reached in October.  This was the first in a series of auctions  to be held over coming weeks to clear space for American soybeans China has been buying to fulfill the soybean purchase pledge made in late October. A second auction will be held tomorrow (December 16), offering another 513,884 metric tons. Chinese traders think the total amount auctioned ...

China produced another record grain crop of 714.88 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics . Production increased 8.38 mmt (+1.2%) from last year. As usual, corn accounted for most of the increase. The Bureau acknowledged the impact of mold on the Fall harvest but the statisticians have no way of measuring how much mold and resulting aflatoxins will impact the effective supply of corn this year. Corn production was estimated at 301.235 mmt for 2025, and this year's 6.32 mmt increase in corn output accounted for most of the increase in grain output. Rice production (209 mmt in 2025) increased 1.5 mmt from last year. Wheat production (140 mmt) decreased slightly (-250,000 metric tons).  Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics. Most of the increase in grain output was achieved by increasing average yields by 66 kg per hectare (up 1.1%) over the previous year. Grain area expanded 90,000 hectares (up 0.1%). There was a slight shift tow...

China is setting up an ecological police system (生态警务机制) that combines citizen surveillance with law enforcement and prosecution to crack down on "environmental and resource crimes" as a strategy for beautifying the countryside.  The system is led by the Ministry of Public Security--highlighting the focus on law enforcement--in conjunction with the Ministry of Justice, the central government's planning ministry, and ministries responsible for environment, agriculture, water management, grasslands, forests, and the coast guard. The plan set forth in an "Opinion on Building an Ecological Police Mechanism" (关于加强生态警务机制建设的意见 which does not seem to be publicly available) aims to have the basic mechanism in place by 2027 and fully operational by 2035.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said the policing system will severely punish environmental pollution, destruction of wild flora and fauna resources, damage to ancient and famous trees, illegal fishing, i...

This month Chinese statisticians will probably report a record 2025 corn crop, but a significant portion of the harvest is unusable. Continuous heavy rain during September and October flooded fields in some of the leading production areas of the North China Plain region, preventing equipment from harvesting some fields and caused mold and sprouting on corn that was harvested. While Chinese news media have been showing photos of giant corn drying facilities to allay concerns about mold, social media showed some farmers scrubbing corn cobs to remove mold. A screenshot from another Chinese video below shows an individual spraying piles of corn to kill mold. Farmer attempts to scrub mold off corn cobs . Spraying corn to kill mold China's corn futures prices dropped 4.6% during September and early October following what appeared to be another "bumper harvest." News of the impact of heavy rains on the north China corn crop spread in mid-October, and the price rose 7.3% from l...

China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) ordered officials to prevent unemployed rural migrants from becoming stranded in their hometowns. This order--alongside reports that village officials told returning migrants to stay away--was interpreted by many as a sign that China's sinking economy is stoking fears of rural unrest. Unemployed migrants milling around in the countryside are a nightmare for stability-obsessed officials.  Chinese netizens noticed an order to prevent large numbers of returning migrants from becoming stranded in their hometowns (防止形成规模性返乡滞乡) in an  article describing a MARA meeting held November 13, 2025 in an ethnic minority area in Yunnan Province focusing on training rural people in handicrafts as a strategy for addressing rural poverty (i.e. selling pots, baskets, and articles of clothing to generate income in remote areas populated by ethnic minorities). The final paragraph of the article published in Yunnan news media called for impl...

China's imports of Brazilian soybeans shrank to 7.1 million metric tons in October from 11 mmt in November. This was the lowest since April's 4.6 mmt. However, imports from Argentina rose to 1.57 mmt in October, supplemented by 710,000 mt from Uruguay. No U.S. soybeans were imported in October. The total import volume of 9.5 mmt during October was roughly equal to the monthly volume being crushed. China customs data. China customs data. The cost of Brazilian soybeans has been rising. Brazil's monthly customs data for 2025 shows that the average value of soybeans shipped to China rose from a low of $384 per metric ton in April to $430 in October, a cumulative increase of 12.1%. China's customs data show that the cost of Brazilian soybeans entering China rose from $431 per metric ton in June to $464 in October, a cumulative increase of 7.7%. Brazil & China customs data. During October the average cost of Brazilian soybeans imported to China went up 3.6% from the previ...

China is promoting its poverty alleviation program as a model for world. Today the "Global South Modernization Forum" was held in Beijing where 60 poverty alleviation scholars from China and abroad praised China's approach to poverty reduction. China considers itself to be a leader of the "Global South," a label for developing countries used by the UN and some other international organizations.  The forum was featured in multiple Chinese State media outlets such as China Daily . Xinhua and China Daily posted articles about the forum on Facebook and Youtube, platforms that are banned in China. Xinhua featured a speech to the foum by the head of the Communist Party's propaganda department. A seminar on "China's Poverty Alleviation and the Global South's Poverty Reduction Efforts" focused on "the global significance of China's victory in the battle against poverty." The description in Chinese news media included the Chinese regi...

Farms will incur losses of RMB -179 per head from fattening hogs, according to a November 11 report from China's National Development and Reform Commission . The report said farms are reluctant to stock up on pigs or engage in "second fattening." Similarly, a weekly report from Shandong Province  estimated an average loss of RMB -80 from farrow-to-finish and RMB -170 from fattening purchased piglets to market weight. The Shandong report attributed losses to low prices under pressure from strong supplies and weak demand.  A year ago hog prices were high and feed prices were dropping. In October 2024,  the NDRC estimated profits of RMB 322 from fattening hogs. Since then, hog prices have dropped dramatically, and profits have turned to losses.  Data from China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Big companies sold large volumes of hogs during October , adding downward pressure on prices. Sales by the top 3 companies during October were their largest of the year...