Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China will investigate impacts of imported beef on the Chinese industry to determine whether safeguard measures to protect the domestic beef industry from imports are justified, according to an announcement by the Ministry of Commerce on December 27 .  China's national livestock industry association and 9 provincial associations submitted an 81-page application for the investigation that claims the increased volume of beef imports since 2019 has harmed the Chinese beef industry.  The Commerce Ministry's announcement cites a 64.93% increase in beef imports from 2019 to 2023 and an increase in imports' share of the Chinese beef market from 20.55% in 2019 to 30.9% in the first half of 2024 to justify the investigation. The announcement claims that "there is a causal relationship between the increase in import volume and serious damage to China's domestic industry.  An explanation of the investigation posted by The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reports tha...

Chinese leaders are celebrating increased grain output in Xinjiang this year as part of their plan to boost the territory's role in national food security.  According to official data released last week, Xinjiang's grain output grew 2.11 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, Heilongjiang Province increased its output by 2.135 mmt, and Inner Mongolia increased its output 1.427 mmt. These 3 territories along China's northern fringe with broad swathes of grassland, desert, forest and swamps accounted for about half of this year's 11.1-mmt increase in national grain output. MMT=million metric tons. The political importance of the Xinjiang grain initiative is reflected by the number of articles in State media gushing over Xinjiang's grain targets and statistics.  China's Xinhua News Service hailed the increase in Xinjiang's 2024 grain output this week, pointing to a record yield and the largest expansion of area planted of any province-level region. In October--two...

China's grain output "reached a new level" in 2024 as it surpassed 700 mmt for the first time,  according to a Chinese official explaining this year's grain data . Production rose 1.3 percent to 706.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024. The area planted in grain crops increased by 0.3% and average yield increased 1.3 percent in 2024 according to data released December 13.  Corn was the driver of China's growth in grain output as it has been for many years. According to the Statistics Bureau's communique on 2024 grain output , corn production reached a record 294.92 mmt in 2024, well above the output of rice (207.54 mmt) and wheat (140.1 mmt). Corn output rose 6.1 mmt this year (up 2.1 percent) and wheat output rose 3.5 mmt, as the two crops accounted for most of the 11.1-mmt increase in grain output. Rice output rose 900,000 metric tons and soybean output declined 200,000 metric tons. Production of early-season rice fell 600,000 metric tons, probably due to sum...

 China's November Consumer Price Index was up 0.2 percent. The food component was up 0.9 percent, but that number hides a lot of big price declines for agricultural goods further up the supply chain. The table below compares year-on-year changes in select food categories from the November CPI report with year-on-year price changes calculated from several other November price data reports from China.  For example, the CPI reported a 1.1 percent decline, but other data sources reported 18 and 19-percent declines for wheat, a 17 percent decline for flour, and price declines of as much as 4-to-6 percent for rice.  Beef prices are down 13.5 percent in the CPI and down 18.3 percent in the Ministry of Agriculture's wholesale price report. Milk prices are down 1.4 percent from last year in the CPI, but raw milk is down 15.2 percent according to the agriculture ministry's wholesale price data. Apples and potatoes are down about 10 percent from last year.  The main components ...

China keeps building more soybean processing capacity, driving its demand for soybeans ever higher and undermining Xi Jinping's dream of reducing dependence on imported soybeans.  An article issued by Shanghai-based Mysteel agricultural commodities last month reported that China's soybean crushing capacity increased from 120 million metric tons (mmt) to 140 mmt over the past 10 years.  A similar article chronicling China's soybean crushing expansion that appeared in 2022 said 10 to 15 soybean crushing facilities with 60,000 metric tons per day were planned for completion between 2022 and 2025. The ones completed have contributed to the expansion reported above. With more scheduled for completion, the Mysteel article predicts that capacity will grow further in the next 2 years.  The massive build-out of capacity--from 10 mmt in 2000 to 140 mmt now--powered China's emergence as the world's dominant soybean consumer.  USDA's PS&D estimates show that China was...