Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

In December 2019 China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a circular calling for normal pork production capacity to be restored by the end of 2020 and normal pork supplies by 2021. The statistics issued by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last week indicate good progress. Trouble is, the increase in productivity implied by the statistics is implausible. We'll set aside NBS's conservative 29-percent decline in swine inventory between Q3 2018 and Q3 2019 during the peak of the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Agriculture Ministry data indicated that the swine population plummeted by more than 40 percent during the epidemic, and the decline in sow numbers was even faster.  In a report on "sustained recovery of livestock production " issued by NBS with Q1 macroeconomic data touted six straight quarters of swine inventory growth. The report said the pork industry increased the inventory of swine on farms to 416 million head at the end ...

China subsidizes production and storage of wheat and rice stockpiles to preserve "food security" for humans, but inedible grain reserves are being auctioned to deflate a bull market for animal feeds. An article by China Grain Net  reported this week that adjustments to opening bids in grain auctions reveal officials' determination to dispose of surplus wheat and rice purchased from 2014 to 2019 under the country's price support program. According to the article, less than 50 million metric tons (mmt) of surplus wheat remains to be sold after a string of auctions held since last year. Over 100 mmt of surplus rice--mostly medium grain--is targeted for disgorgement from bloated reserves. China Grain Net is a grain market news service operated by Sinograin, China's Grain Reserve Corporation. The article focuses on the "huge effect" of an April 12 circular that raised the opening bid price for the wheat auctions by 60 yuan per metric ton. This move was interp...

A simple recipe for statistical flim-flam: pour one cup of random numbers into a bowl, sprinkle with political slogans, fold in statistical algorithms and reams of paper to taste, mix vigorously, and bake until the ingredients are indistinguishable. The final product tastes like cardboard and has no calories or protein, but government officials and bureaucrats will nevertheless grow fat on a steady diet of this concoction. Last month China's statistics bureau presented itself to the United Nations as a technocratic government organization while at home celebrating its role as an inherently political organization.  On March 1 and 5, a delegation from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) participated in a videoconference with the UN statistics committee where the Bureau pledged to participate in statistical monitoring of 2030 sustainable development goals, international big data, improvements of national accounts, environmental accounting, geographic information systems,...