Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Another surge this month leaves China's hog price at about the same as the record-highs posted a year ago--despite the Ministry of Agriculture's claim that the country's swine inventory has rebounded faster than expected and is now at 90 percent of normal .  The average hog price reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics for mid-December 2020 was 33.9 yuan per kg., just slightly below the average of 34.2 yuan/kg the Bureau reported for the same time period in 2019. Soozhu.com reports a further increase in the hog price to 35.40 yuan/kg on December 30, 2020. Prices were about 10-to-15 yuan/kg. before the surge in prices in mid-2019. Data from National Bureau of Statistics average purchase prices for industrial materials. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reports a similar pattern in pork prices. The average wholesale price of a swine carcass averaged 49.82 yuan/kg in mid-December 2020, slightly lower than the 50.99 yuan/kg reported a year earlier. The...

China has imported 9 million metric tons (mmt) of corn in the first 11 months of 2020, China's largest-ever corn import total. The corn import total exceeded the country's 7.2-mmt tariff rate quota (TRQ) for the first time as of October after falling short of the quota every year since it was established in 2001. An additional 1.23 mmt imported during November pushed the 2020 total even further beyond the quota.  Source: China customs statistics. China's January-November 2020 imports of corn from the United States totaled 3.285 mmt, a more than 10-fold increase from the 2019 total and the largest total since 2013. While efforts to meet purchase commitments from the U.S. in the Phase One agreement are one factor behind the surge, Ukraine remains the top supplier of China's imported corn in 2020 with over 5.2 mmt. Imports from Ukraine also increased this year. Other countries--including Bulgaria, Russia, Laos, and Myanmar--supplied 531,000 mt of corn through November, up ...

addendum: Tang Renjian was appointed Minister of Agriculture December 26, 2020. China's Minister of Agriculture mostly disappeared from the Ministry's web site at the end of November. While Han Changfu remains Minister of Agriculture for the time being, his more important position of communist party secretary has been handed over to Tang Renjian in a minor shake-up of personnel in Beijing.  A one-sentence posting on the Ministry's web site said as of December 1 the communist party central committee had decided that Comrade Tang Renjian serves as member and office director of the Central Rural Work Committee and Party secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and that Comrade Han Changfu no longer serves in those positions.  In: Tang Renjian Out: Han Chanfu During the last 3 weeks Han Changfu no longer appeared in any news stories on the ag ministry web site, nor did he appear for meetings with visiting dignitaries. The site still lis...

Chinese officials eager to shift blame for covid-19 have reported finding traces of the virus on a handful of imported frozen meat and seafood boxes out of thousands tested after a massive testing campaign was ordered. A box of chicken legs appears to be the only domestic product that has been tested--and it came from a multinational company operating in China. Inactive virus was found on the outside of boxes; none of the food inside the boxes tested positive. Chinese official disinfects U.S. pork boxes that tested positive for covid-19. The meat itself did not test positive. On November 25, Chinese food safety officials announced that covid-19 virus had been detected on the packaging of dozens of shipments of imported frozen food in a number of localities. The deputy director of the national food safety risk assessment center attributed the surge in positive test results to the increase in number of tests performed, and warned consumers not to panic because positive results were ...

A "Real P3" podcast featuring American veterinarian Wayne Johnson provides a rare glimpse of what’s happening on the ground as China’s swine industry recovers from its African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Dr. Johnson offers a unique perspective, having worked in China for 16 of the last 24 years in training, consulting, and running a diagnostic lab.  Last year, the ASF outbreak closed many pig farms and this year's “novel coronavirus” or “covid-19” prevents farm visits, but the doctor keeps his finger on the pulse of the industry through constant lab testing of samples submitted by customers, consulting and training. Dr. Johnson observes that many Chinese pig farmers have shortcomings in their understanding of good nutrition, proper ventilation, and the exercise of “discipline.” They learn by doing, and farmers now understand biosecurity a lot better than they did. "ASF will teach you biosecurity in a hurry,” Dr. Johnson explains. China hasn’t dealt with ASF “straigh...

Chinese officials attribute record-high corn prices to speculation and hoarding. For months they have been warning about impending collapse in prices and doom for speculators, but prices just don't come down. The average corn price reported by the National Bureau of Statistics peaked in August, but resumed its climb in September-October despite the arrival of newly-harvested corn. The price appeared to level off in November, but the latest data point for late November bumped upward again. The late November corn price is up 34 percent from a year earlier.  Source: China National Bureau of Statistics raw materials purchase price. Preliminary estimates of grain output released by the Bureau today showed a tiny 100,000-ton decrease in corn output to 260.67 million metric tons in 2020. Some industry observers expected a larger decline due to multiple typhoons that hit northeastern China in the summer and fall, but agricultural officials insist that losses were minimal as experts help...