Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus all ban production of genetically modified crops, yet Chinese customs inspectors have been rejecting shipments of vegetable oil from these countries due to detection of GMOs. China's detections of GMOs in imported food shipments have increased sharply this year. During the first 3 months of 2026, Chinese customs reported rejecting 88 shipments totaling 6,271 metric tons for detection of unauthorized GMOS. The rejection count was up from 38 shipments in all of 2025, and 10 in 2024. China reported 1-to-4 GMO rejections annually before 2024. Compilation of food import rejection reports from China customs administration website. Rapeseed oil comprised 74 of the 88 rejections this year. The rejected rapeseed oil came mainly from Kazakhstan (59 rejections) and Russia (13 rejections). Two other shipments of rejected rapeseed oil had been shipped from Belarus and Ukraine. Other GMO rejections announced by China so far this year included flour products from Ja...

The Chinese propaganda machine is pushing dietary change with a slogan: "Appropriately reduce oil and increase intake of legumes and dairy." State media have been running a story touting the health benefits of dietary guidelines for Chinese citizens published 4 years ago . The article/video features the Agriculture Minister's recitation of the slogan at last month's "two sessions" and advice from a Yunnan Province hospital physician on how to adjust eating habits. The article emphasized the health benefits of increasing intake of legumes and dairy while keeping total calories and fat intake in check.  The guidelines recommend limiting edible oil intake to 25-to-30 g. per day, warning that the limits can be easily exceeded if one consumes excessive amounts of meat and fried foods. The Yunnan physician recommended avoiding deep-fried foods, cutting back on animal fats, and steaming, boiling, stewing, or quick-frying to reduce oil intake. She recommended using...

One of China's top 2 soybean crushers reported a rebound in profits during 2025 despite the trade war that choked off imports of U.S. soybeans for most of the year. However, the profit report belies a gloomy outlook for China's crushing industry as it awaits another deluge of Brazilian soybeans this Spring. Arawana Holdings Co. Ltd. (known in China as Yihai Kerry) reported a 26% increase in profits in a preliminary report of its 2025 financial performance . Arawana cited improved soybean crushing margins due to strong downstream demand for its soybean meal products and reduced soybean costs during the first 3 quarters of 2025. The report said strong demand for soybean meal was driven by its high cost-effectiveness in feed formulations (thus undermining agricultural officials' plans to eliminate soybean meal from feed formulations). Margins were also aided by ample South American supplies that drove down soybean prices and lowered raw material costs. The report said procurem...

China's customs authorities reported rejecting 14 batches of rapeseed oil from Kazakhstan in December 2025 due to detection of genetically modified material in the shipments. The report said the rejected shipments totaling 811 metric tons had been purchased by Xiamen Agricultural Products Trading Company located on China's southeastern coast. The shipments were rejected by Chinese customs authorities in the Urumqi customs region that borders Kazakhstan.  According to news from Kazakhstan  this month, Chinese officials put 3 Kazakh plants on a blacklist, 2 had suspended operations, and 5 were on the brink of closure. One of the idled plants reportedly had Chinese ownership. A Kazakh industry official reported that the China market is vital to the industry's development strategy.  The Kazakh article suggests there are disputes over the detections of GMOs: "Chinese importers periodically detect GMs in rapeseed oil shipments and return the cargo, although Kazakh laborator...

The risk of a soybean shortage is "manageable" if U.S.-China trade negotiations remain at an impasse, according to a tour of cooking oil manufacturers in southern China conducted by industry analysts in August . Chinese edible oils processors are watching negotiations and concerned about Brazilian and U.S. soybean supplies, but the report's authors saw little risk of an oilseed market shortfall until March 2026. Industry analysts associated with MySteel agricultural commodities visited edible oils processing facilities in China's Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces--two important points of entry for oilseeds and edible oil imports--during August 2025. MySteel is one of the more objective providers of agricultural market information in China. The report was directed at futures market investors. China has become reliant on imported soybeans, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and palm oil. Guangdong, a key export manufacturing hub, has 14 edible refineries. Guangxi borders Vietnam, an...

China has flipped from net importer of soybean oil to net exporter for the first time ever, a phenomenon discovered by an analysis posted on a Chinese edible oils industry site  earlier this month. Booming exports and plummeting imports of soy oil indicate the pace of soybean imports from Brazil is overwhelming demand in China and driving down prices of soy oil and meal. At the same time, accumulation of inventories and weak demand in China's food industry will help China sustain its strategy of zeroing out imports of U.S. soybeans to gain the upper hand in trade negotiations. Chinese customs data through July 2025 confirm a prominent uptick in soybean oil exports mirrored by plummeting imports. The chart below shows soybean oil import and export volumes for the first 10 months of the 2024/25 market year compared to year-earlier volumes. (The market year runs from October through September.) With just 2 months left in the 2024/25 market year, China's exports of soybean oil sta...

Chinese market regulators have launched crackdowns on adulteration and fraud in cooking oil and meat industries. Chinese authorities have claimed to have solved these food safety and fraud problems on multiple occasions over the past 30 years.  Fraud and adulteration in China's cooking oil industry will be the focus of a crackdown announced by the State Administration of Market Supervision and Regulation  that began April 12 and will continue through December 2025. The rectification will address prominent problems and illegal business behavior that threatens the quality and safety of edible oils, including: Adulteration and counterfeiting, including the sale of cheap oils as premium oils and passing off expired oils as new product. Excessive use of additives such as flavorings, fragrances, and pigments during the production and processing of vegetable oils. False labeling: unlabeled oils or products that inaccurately declare proportions of blended oils, failure to clearly labe...

A recent study tour of southwest China's rapeseed oil industry shows how developments in global markets filter down to the country's hinterland. The prospect of tariffs on Canadian canola has prompted companies to stockpile canola seeds and oil, while companies are relying on an expected influx of Brazilian soybeans to ease tight supplies of soybean oil. Meanwhile, demand for rapeseed meal used in fish farming has dropped as unwanted tilapia fish are piling up. Soybeans get the most attention, but rapeseed is the second-largest segment of China's edible oil supply. Unlike soybean oil (derived almost entirely from imported beans), rapeseed oil is produced from three sources: crushing domestic seeds, crushing imported seeds, and refining imported rapeseed oil.  Estimated from Ministry of Agriculture, China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (CASDE) and USDA's PS&D database. China imports all of its palm oil. The country produces peanut and cottonseed oils fro...

In its  September "China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates " China's Ministry of Agriculture reduced its estimates of the country's corn production and imports for the coming year, but an excess supply of over 8 million metric tons is still expected for the 2016/17 market year. Soybean imports were revised downward to 84 mmt for 2016/17 as sales of government stocks displace some imports and tepid livestock industry growth slows soybean meal demand growth. Corn prices in production regions are expected to fall to 1500-to-1650 yuan/mt during 2016/17, down from 1850-1880 yuan during 2015/16. China corn balance sheet (China Ministry of Ag, Sept 2016) Item Unit 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Change from last month Sown area 1000 HA 37,123 38,117 36,026 Yield KG/HA 5,809 5,892 5,983 -27.00 Production Mil MT 215.70 224.58 215.43 -1.08 Imports Mil MT 5.52 4.60 ...

China's Ministry of Agriculture issued its first China Agricultural Supply and Demand report  this week, taking a long-awaited step toward providing useful information on agricultural markets. Several private companies in China have been selling reports like this by subscription for years, but this is the first report with regular agricultural supply and demand estimates to be released by a Chinese government agency to the public without charge. The China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) includes supply and demand balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, vegetable oils, and sugar, plus a brief narrative explaining supply and demand conditions for each commodity. (Notably, rice and wheat are excluded--perhaps these commodities are too sensitive to discuss.) The report appears to be modeled on the USDA's WASDE report, although it only covers a few commodities and is limited to China's S&D situation. The report contains S&D estimates for market year...