Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's swine inventory was about 14 percent below its pre-African swine fever epidemic level at the end of Q3 2020--about half last year's deficit. With peak pork consumption season coming up in Q4, it will be hard to continue rebuilding swine inventories in the last three months of 2020.  China's National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the third quarter of 2020 that included a swine inventory of 370 million for the quarter's end, 14 percent less than the pre-ASF inventory of 429 million head in Q3 2018. China's swine inventory bottomed out at 307 million in Q3 2019, about 28 percent less than the pre-ASF level. According to the Bureau, the inventory at the end of Q3 was up 9 percent from Q2. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that the swine herd had been growing steadily at 4 percent since June, faster than the 3 percent monthly growth implied by the Statistics Bureau's numbers. In August, the Ag Ministry reported that the swine inve...

In one breath, Chinese agricultural officials in Beijing proclaim a robust recovery of the pork sector, and with the next breath they issue urgent orders to their underlings in the provinces to build more pig farms.  China's agriculture ministry held an October 10, 2020 videoconference where provincial and local officials were admonished not to slack off on implementing hog production support measures as the industry's recovery enters a "key period." Beijing officials explicitly ordered both provincial and local leaders to take seriously their responsibility to expand pork supplies, an indication that engineering a rebound in pork output remains a top "political task" after a year of shrunken pork supplies and record-high prices.  On October 15, the agriculture ministry's press conference on agricultural markets pronounced that hog production capacity had staged a steady recovery during the third quarter of 2020. Officials praised the smooth operation ...

China is producing and consuming more meat, eggs and milk than anyone thought possible in the early 20th century, but the industry has festering problems that intermittently blow up: babies poisoned by chemical-laced milk, avian influenza outbreaks, dead pigs floating in rivers, black streams and green lakes, and a year-long bout of sky-high meat prices after African swine fever decimated the pig herd last year. On September 27, China's State Council released an " Opinion on Promoting Quality Development of the Livestock Industry " to ensure supplies of animal protein while addressing the industry's rising costs, growing reliance on imports, rampant disease, environmental degradation, and food safety threats. The document outlines multiple goals for the nation's livestock industry: filling the citizenry's "market basket" for food, promoting income growth for farmers and herdsmen, and contributing to rural industrialization. The document claims output...