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Cost of China's Brazilian Soybean Imports is Rising

 Brazil's soybean exports to China began to slow in August, with 7.9 million metric tons shipped, according to Brazilian export data. That's a slower pace than the 10-to-11 mmt monthly exports during March to July 2025. (But it exceeds the 5.9 mmt exported to China a year ago in August 2024.) As Brazil's huge--but finite--supply of soybeans shrinks, it will become increasingly expensive for Chinese importers to maintain their embargo on U.S. soybeans.

Brazilian exports from UN Comtrade

This year, arrivals of Brazilian soybeans clearing customs in China seem to have lagged Brazilian exports by 1 or 2 months. For example, China's first spike in arrivals of Brazilian beans this year was in May (12.1 mmt), two months after Brazilian shipments surged in March (11.1 mmt). The August 2025 drop-off in shipments shown in Brazilian exports may show up in China's October import data. 

China customs data. Detailed data for August have not yet been released.

As Brazilian bean supplies pass their peak and Chinese buyers have to bid against Brazilian customers, soybean prices are rising in Brazil. Since May the average value of Brazilian soybean exports has been rising roughly in parallel with spot prices in Brazil. However, the modest jump in value of August shipments was behind the jump in Brazilian spot prices that month. According to Chinese customs data, importers in China began to see a small impact on the cost of imported Brazilian beans during July-August, about two months after Brazilian export values began rising in May-June. Chinese import data for September-October will likely show additional increases in cost that reflect the rising value of Brazilian exports.

Brazilian and Chinese customs data and Brazil CEPEA.


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