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China's Brazil Soy Buys Enabled by 3-year Slide in Prices

China's frenzy to snatch up record volumes of Brazilian soybeans has had surprisingly little impact on the cost of its soybean imports. The record volume of soybeans arriving in China during May-August 2025 had the lowest per-ton cost since pre-pandemic years. As the southern hemisphere export campaign has passed its peak, competition for Brazilian beans is finally heating up. But China's importers have not yet felt impact of rising Brazilian prices. 

In historical context, China's record pace of soybean imports during May-August 2025 stands out clearly, with a total of 50 mmt arriving over those 4 months combined. Most came from Brazil. China now imports from Brazil nearly year-round, but there is still a seasonal pattern. According to Brazilian sources, Brazil's August soybean exports totaled 9.33 mmt--many of which will end up in China this month. That was record-high for August, but down 23.8% from July, suggesting that China's imports of Brazilian beans have passed their seasonal peak. 

Calendar years through Aug 2025. Unit value = ratio of value to volume.
Genetically modified soybeans only. 
Calculated from China customs data.

A 3-year slide in soybean prices enabled China's spike in soybean purchases. China's August import total of 12.3 million metric tons of soybeans had an average value of $444 per metric ton, down from $415 in August 2024, $556 in August 2023, and nearly 40% lower than the $723 in August 2022. 

This year's unit value of imported soybeans in China fell slightly as Brazilian soybeans began arriving in April 2025. The average value of imported soybeans fell from $459 per metric ton in March to $438 in May and $435 in June. The average import value then edged up to $444 in August. The August cost was still well below the average a year earlier. The relatively low prices for Chinese buyers this year reflect the huge supplies in Brazil. 

Average value of soybean arrivals is ratio of import value to volume.
Brazil spot price is monthly average of cash price in Paranaguá reported by CEPEA.
Chart shows previous month's Brazilian price.

The decline in cost of Chinese soybean imports is broadly consistent with a decline in cash prices in Paranaguá, Brazil since 2022 (Brazilian prices are lagged 1 month in the chart below to line up with import prices of beans that take a month or so to reach China). Brazilian prices bottomed out at $373 in January 2025 before rising 10.6% to $413 by July.  

Recently Brazil's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) reported rising price premiums for exported soybeans due to intensified competition between Brazilian and foreign buyers. 

The 2-percent increase in cost of China's soybean imports between June and August only dimly reflects rising spot prices in Brazil. The average Brazilian price rose 4.2% in August to reach $430, and the price is up another 1% in the first week of September.

While Chinese importers have accumulated a reported 6.8 mmt of imported soybean inventories over the last 3 months, many of the beans have been processed into oil and meal, depressing prices of both. If imported beans rise in cost with no rebound in prices of oil or meal, Chinese crushers could face losses.

A Chinese news article last week reported that Brazilian soybean shipments to China had been quoted at premiums of $2.69 per bushel for October shipment and $2.75 for November. Crushing margins for Brazilian soybeans were slightly negative for October and November. According to that report, China's soybean purchases through October were completed but purchases for November to January were still being made. 

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Accredited Feng Shui said…
Soybeans is a lucrative business. Yes, engaging with the soybean market can be a lucrative business, especially in importing and processing, as countries like Malaysia depend on imports due to a lack of domestic production. Key opportunities exist in providing high-quality feed ingredients to the robust Southeast Asian livestock sector, which benefits from the nutritional value and consistency of products like US soy. However, the business is susceptible to market volatility from trade wars, shifting import demands, and tightening global supply of US soybean oil due to factors like biofuel mandates.
September 12, 2025 at 9:11 PM
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