Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's Ag Minister met with Iranian and U.S. officials last week. The contrasting reports on the meetings perhaps reveal who China thinks its friends are.  On February 15, 2023, Tang Renjian, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs met with Iranian Agriculture Minister Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad in conjunction with Iranian President Raisi's meeting with Xi Jinping. The meeting focused on Minister Tang's proposals for China-Iran cooperation in agriculture to support the "consensus" reached by Presidents Xi and Raisi, according to an article posted on the English Ministry of Agriculture site (it also appeared on the Chinese version ). Minister Tang proposed holding a policy dialogue, and suggested exchanges in dryland agriculture, new plant varieties, soil health, and trade cooperation. The Agriculture Ministry publicists thought it was very important for the world to see the Chinese agriculture minister joking around with his Iranian counterpart: On February 17,...

As China's campaign to root out grain corruption grinds through its second year, communist party inspectors have determined that a parallel system of watchers and enforcers is needed to stop the bribery and trickery that threaten national food security.  A year ago communist party inspectors celebrated their success in nabbing mostly low-level granary managers . Since then more cases have come to light, including take-downs of people at the very top of the sprawling grain reserve system. Zhang Wufeng--head of the government bureau that oversees grain reserves-- was expelled from the communist party in December . The Deputy Director of Sinograin--the state-owned company that manages the reserves was also caught. Last April inspectors in Heilongjiang Province--China's largest grain-producing region-- said they had investigated over 1000 officials and arrested 92 , including six in the Provincial grain bureau. Propaganda art promoting the grain corruption crackdown...

This year 1,230 Chinese companies applied to import corn, including the world's biggest feed-milling  and swine-producing companies. Starch and ethanol producers that were subsidized in past years to sop up excess corn are now clamoring to import corn as well.  China flipped from corn exporter to importer in a short space of time. Twenty years ago China exported 16.5 million tons of corn, but in 2022 China imported 20.5 million tons and will probably import a similar quantity this year.  Note: Calendar years. Source: China customs statistics. Clues about China's soaring demand for corn can be gleaned from a list of applicants for the tariff rate quota (TRQ) that allows up to 7.2 million tons of corn to be imported at a 1-percent tariff each year. Imports outside the TRQ system are charged a deal-breaking 65 percent tariff. Prospective importers have to apply every September for a share of the following year's quota. Chinese authorities grudgingly agreed to publicly releas...

China's statisticians claim meat output reached a record high in 2022, but meat prices and imports are still at historically high levels.  Official data show that China's meat production increased to a record 92.3 million tons in 2022, up from 88.9 million tons in 2021. The 3.8-percent increase seems inconsistent with 0 growth in feed production through November shown by China's feed industry association and a decline shown by the Alltech feed survey. China's meat prices also remain at historically high levels despite the record output and large portions of the country locked down during 2022.  Customs data also show that meat imports reached 7.2 million tons in 2022, lower than the previous two years due to an increase in pork tariffs and declining pork prices during the first half of the year. However, last year's meat import figure was still higher than any year before African swine fever caused imports to spike during 2019-20. The sum of meat output and imports ...

China's farmers boosted soybean output by 23.7 percent--as directed by authorities--but now they're having trouble finding buyers for the beans.  Chinese officials launched a frenetic campaign to boost soybean output in 2022 in order to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. Statistics show that area planted in soybeans increased 21.7 percent, exceeding the goal for soybean and oilseed planting set by last year's "Number one document" to increase soybean self-sufficiency. Goaded on by very generous soybean subsidies and hectoring by officials, the output exceeded 20 million metric tons for the first time ever.  The harvest total is nevertheless still far short of the 91-million-ton import total for the 2022 calendar year just announced by customs officials. Soybeans harvested on the outskirts of Beijing. The news is not all good for farmers, though. Today an agricultural official fretted about falling soybean prices at a press conference on agricultural affairs . T...

China's publicly listed hog companies continued boosting their share of sales during 2022. Data compiled by Futures Daily showed that 16 companies reported a combined 129.2-million head sales total in 2022. [update: This is 18.5 percent of national hog slaughter of 700 million head announced today by the National Bureau of Statistics .] Compiled by Futures Daily from financial reports. Combined sales by listed companies were up about 30 percent from 2021. The largest company, Muyuan, has tripled its output since 2020. Muyuan sold 61.2 million head last year, up from 40.3 million in 2021 and 18.1 million in 2020. Wens Foodstuff recovered its number-2 position with 17.9 million head after seeing a dramatic drop during the African swine fever years of 2019-20. Financially troubled Zhengbang Sci-tech saw a decline in sales while New Hope Group had another year of expansion. [update: National hog slaughter increased 4.3 percent during 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistic...

China is dumping its surplus rice in developing countries at below-market prices. In doing so, China has now fully replicated the policy missteps made by North American and European countries during the last century.  China is simultaneously one of the world's largest importers of rice and one of the largest exporters. China imported 2.6 million metric tons of milled rice in the first 11 months of 2022, but it also exported nearly 2 million tons. (This excludes 3.4 million tons of broken rice imports used for animal feed discussed here last September .)  Note: excludes broken and rough rice. *2022 for January-November. Until 2016, China's rice exports were a dribble of medium grain rice sold to merchants in Japan and South Korea. Then exports suddenly boomed to about 2 million tons annually beginning in 2018. What happened? The exports are mainly medium grain rice, a variety grown in northeastern provinces and the Yangtze River delta. Northeastern rice has a reputation fo...