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China's Quotas Restrain Beef Imports during the Second Half of 2026

China's beef import quotas have begun to bite now that Brazil--its largest supplier--has filled its "safeguard" quota. Additional imports beyond the quota are subject to an additional 55% tariff, according to China's beef safeguard adopted in January 2026. China's beef output has been slow to rebound--production in the first three quarters of 2026 was down year-over-year. Chinese beef prices are up.

In September 2026, China's beef imports totaled 143,000 metric tons, down from 316,000 metric tons a year earlier. China's cumulative beef imports for the first nine months of 2026 total 2.1 million metric tons, down 26,000 metric tons year-over-year. 

China customs data.

Customs data show that Brazil's imports hit their import quota in August, but China announced officially that Brazil hit its quota in September. Australian imports had hit their quota in June. Imports from both countries continued at a slower pace after their quotas filled. Brazil supplied 35% of China's beef imports in September and Australia supplied 9%. 

Argentina, Uruguay, New Zealand, and the United States have not filled their quotas. In September Argentina supplied 28% of beef imports, Uruguay supplied 10%, New Zealand supplied 7%, and the United States supplied less than 1%. The rest was supplied by Canada--which was not given a quota, and by Bolivia and other developing countries exempt from the quota system.

China customs data and safeguard quotas for 2026.

China's beef production in the first 3 quarters of 2026 was down -0.7% from a year earlier, and cattle slaughtered were down -3.1%. The inventory of cattle in China at the end of September was down -4.1% from a year earlier. 

Quarterly data indicate a slight improvement in production during Q3 2026--also coinciding with the decline of imports. During Q3, the number of cattle slaughtered was down -1.8% year-over-year (versus -4.5% during Q2) and beef output was down -0.5% (versus -0.7% during Q2).

Calculated from National Bureau of Statistics data.

Average wholesale beef prices in China during October 2026 are up 9.1% from a year earlier, and prices are up 5.9% during the most recent four months since imports began falling in June. Cattle prices are up 14.5% year-over-year and up 9.7% since June.

Compiled from China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

Brazil's monthly exports to China dropped 90% from 160,000 metric tons in June to 16,000 metric tons in August and less than 11,000 metric tons in September. 

Brazil Comex export database.

Comparing Brazil's September beef exports with its June exports shows a 21,000-metric-ton increase in exports to the United States and smaller increases of 4-to-7 thousand metric tons to the Netherlands, Russia, Egypt, and Turkey. Increases in Brazil's exports to other countries only offset a fraction of the decline in Brazil's monthly exports to China since June. 


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