Skip to main content

Antidumping Halted China's Lysine Export Growth in 2025

China's relentless growth in exports of the amino acid lysine was finally reversed in 2025. The value of exports fell more than the volume as AD actions by the EU, Brazil and the U.S. hit prices hard in the Chinese industry. Lower prices led to gains in dozens of other markets around the world, but the value of exports was down sharply.

Source: China customs data HS code 29224190.

Lysine is an essential amino acid that can be used in animal diets for protein synthesis to improve muscle growth and feed efficiency. China imported lysine and other amino acid feed supplements until the early 2000s, but China now produces an estimated 70% of the world's amino acids. In addition to lysine, China exports threonine, tryptophan, and methionine. 

China has the world's largest livestock herd, and China's agriculture ministry has been promoting domestic use of amino acids as a means of reducing use of soybean meal in animal diets. Yet domestic demand for lysine has been less dynamic than the export market. By my calculation, China exported 30% of the lysine it produced in 2019, and the share grew to 44% in 2023 (the last production figure available). An analysis by Chinese consultancy Boyar said antidumping duties were the factor that caused a steep drop in Chinese lysine prices last year. 

As growth in exports accelerated, the EU and Brazil began antidumping investigations of Chinese lysine during 2024. The United States announced an AD investigation May 28, 2025. 

During 2025 lysine exports to the EU--China's top market for the feed additive--fell by more than half. Exports to the United States and Brazil fell more moderately. Meanwhile, lower prices stimulated growth in exports to 68 countries led by India -- which surpassed the U.S. and Thailand to become the no. 2 market -- and Russia. 


Exports to the United States surged during May and June 2025, probably as buyers stocked up ahead of the antidumping investigation. Exports to the U.S. were impacted during October-December 2025.

China customs data, HS 29224190.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

China's Vanishing Soybean Self-Sufficiency Rhetoric

Chinese propagandists appear to have given up on soybean self-sufficiency now that China has gained the upper hand over the U.S. on the soybean trade war front. The barrage of Chinese articles about finding soymeal substitutes, low protein animal diets, corn-soy intercropping, etc. has quietly faded from Chinese media. China's plan to bolster soybean self-sufficiency actually failed, but Brazil's bottomless soybean supplies nevertheless enabled China to snub U.S. soybean producers during last year's trade war. Xi Jinping now is free to make offers of soybean purchases to President Trump in trade negotiations without appearing to do so from a weak position. Mission accomplished, but not in the way Chinese strategists planned. Back in 2019--at the height of the first U.S.-China trade war--China's "Number 1 Document" announced a "soybean revitalization plan" to increase self-sufficiency in soybeans. Soybeans were pronounced to have strategic significanc...

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...

Divergence in U.S. & Chinese egg prices

High egg prices are a hot topic in the United States. China, in contrast, has a glut of eggs and depressed prices.  The March 14, 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service weekly eggs market overview reported that U.S. egg prices continued declining during the second week of March as the supply situation improved. No significant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have occurred in March and U.S. egg demand is relatively light. The average U.S. wholesale price for Grade A large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen, down sharply from their February peak.  Until 2021, Chinese and U.S. wholesale egg prices had been roughly equal at about $1-to-$2 per dozen with no trend. U.S. prices fluctuated more than Chinese prices, so the U.S. price was sometimes higher, sometimes lower than the Chinese price after converting them to dollars per dozen.  Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen. Sources: USDA and China Ministry of Agricult...