China Acknowledges Tomato Price Spike to Head Off Dissatisfaction

Dozens of Chinese news reports have called attention to high tomato prices over the past month. The large number of similar reports coming out at the same time is an effort to shape public opinion about the Government's control of prices, heading off any discontent that could lead to social instability during a sensitive time. 

Chinese news media are not free to report on any trend or events they deem to be important. This blog has previously discussed how China's State-controlled media is expected to shape public opinion. The large number of articles appearing at the same time, using the same language indicates that articles on tomato prices represent a coordinated effort by propaganda authorities to address this issue. 

The tomato price reports seem to have begun in mid-December with an article in Southern Daily noting vigorous discussion over whether vegetables have become unaffordable. Since then, dozens of articles have appeared in news outlets all over the country citing high prices collected from e-commerce sites or from visits to local markets and stores, noting that tomato prices are 80% to 100% higher than a year ago and acknowledging citizens' consternation over tomatoes being more expensive than eggs or pork.

On January 9, 2026, the Consumer Price Index report for December 2025 showed that vegetable prices were the fastest growing CPI component -- up 18.5% from a year-earlier. It also showed that egg prices were down 12.7%.

Several days later around January 14-16, the number of articles on tomato prices ballooned. Articles continued to come out this week from all over the country, including western regions Xinjiang, Kunming, Chengdu, and Chongqing. This week authoritative articles appeared in Farmers Daily -- the national mouthpiece for agricultural propaganda -- as well as Shanghai's The Paper and Beijing's Xinjing Bao--outlets with a national audience. 

Beginning with the Southern Daily article, nearly every article has featured the same phrase “鸡蛋配不上西红柿” complaining that eggs can no longer be paired with tomatoes in a popular dish combining scrambled eggs and tomatoes (西红柿炒鸡蛋) because tomatoes are now more expensive than eggs. (Is it a coincidence that vegetables and eggs had the largest price changes in the CPI report?) The use of the same phrase in every article suggests it was dictated by propaganda authorities. Xinjing Bao added another sardonic aphorism supposedly being repeated by common people: "I'm too poor to eat vegetables."

Data compiled from Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market confirms that tomato prices have increased from RMB2-per-500g in June-July to a December peak of RMB5.25-per-500g (RMB 10.5 per kg). Most of the increase occurred after Sept-Oct heavy rains and the early onset of low temperatures in northern China that are cited by many of the articles. However, the Xinfadi data also show that prices also spiked to a similar level in October 2024--an event that failed to generate attention. The spike could have been the result of a second factor cited by many of the articles: farmers abandoned production during a period of extremely low prices earlier in the year. 

Price of tomatoes in Styrofoam boxes compiled from xinfadi.com.cn

A longer history of national tomato prices shows that prices fluctuate wildly every year, and price spikes are not uncommon. Big spikes also occurred in January 2022 and in February 2020 -- both months that correspond to the beginning of zero-covid lockdowns -- that also were ignored by news media. So why all the attention on this tomato price spike?

Monthly rural market prices compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics.

Chinese authorities are concerned about food price stability because it could lead to social unrest, threatening their rule. They undoubtedly recall that spikes in food prices were a core part of the "Arab Spring" uprisings in North Africa. Several of China's friends have been deposed recently in countries like Syria and Nepal, and Chinese leaders have surely been watching protests explode in Iran over the past month. China itself is vulnerable with millions of families underwater on real estate investments, unemployment, unpaid wage issues and an embarrassing decline in the birth rate.

Nearly all of the Chinese articles on tomato prices subtly shift blame away from the government to uncontrollable weather (Xinjing Bao cited an La Niña phenomenon) and irrational farmers who overproduce and exit production when prices fell. Farmers Daily explained that "...extreme weather is posing increasingly severe challenges to agricultural production..." 

Chinese news media never mention a problem unless they can assure readers that the government has the problem under control. True to form, all the tomato price articles predict a decline in prices in the Spring, and they cite Chinese Government actions to ensure vegetable supplies. Southern Daily, for example, claimed that prices are overall stable due to the "vegetable basket" system that arranges production areas across the country to ensure year-round supplies. Farmers Daily cited the "vegetable basket" program and claimed that the agriculture ministry sends technicians to advise farmers on disaster-resistant varieties, inspects greenhouses, and advises farmers on emergency heating measures, and coordinates post-production sales of vegetables. Southern Daily claimed that the predominance of large-scale farms in egg production had stabilized their prices (the chart above shows that egg prices are not so stable). Farmers Daily reminds readers vegetable supplies are much improved from the old days when families in Beijing queued up to buy cabbage and leeks as the only vegetables available during winter months.

The weather problems cited for high tomato prices are real. Spikes in tomato prices can't be hidden from the public. However, there have been no reports on how the September-October rains are impacting supplies of corn, food grade soybeans and late planting of winter wheat -- except for very brief mentions in obscure reports on market conditions that are safely out of the public's eye.