Chicago soybean prices keep rising based on expectations of renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Yet, nearly 2 weeks after Xi and Trump met in Korea China seems to be dragging its feet in buying U.S. soybeans.
China has imported a cumulative 95.7 mmt of soybeans for January-October 2025, up 6.4 mmt from the same period in 2024. Imports from the U.S.in the first 10 months of 2025 are only 16.8 mmt.
According to the White House, China committed to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans by the end of 2025, an amount that will be hard to achieve with less than 2 months left in the year. China also reportedly committed to buy at least 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. Beijing consultancy Boyar observed last week that China has not confirmed these figures, and traders are still closely watching for signs of large-scale purchases.
On November 3 China waived punitive tariffs on U.S. agricultural products that had been imposed at the height of the trade war in March, but a 10% tariff on all U.S good (in retaliation for U.S. fentanyl tariffs) puts the tariff on U.S. soybeans at 13% versus 3% for Brazilian soybeans.
China's State-owned COFCO reportedly purchased 3 cargoes of U.S. soybeans just before the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting. Widely interpreted as a symbolic gesture, that amounts to about 180,000 metric tons. It has been rumored that COFCO has purchased several additional cargoes.
On November 7 COFCO signed a soybean purchase agreement at a "China-US Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum" held at the Shanghai International Import Expo, but no amounts or timing have been publicly announced. The U.S. Soybean Export Council had meetings with buyers at the meeting, but no deals were announced.
This week China restored import rights that had been suspended in March for Minnesota cooperative CHS, grain trader Louis Dreyfuss, and a partnership that includes Bunge and Pan Ocean America.
Today Chinese media revealed that COFCO also signed a separate agreement to purchase nearly 20 mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil and other agricultural products at the Shanghai Expo. The agreement was signed on November 6--the day before the agreement to buy U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian agreement to strengthen agricultural economic ties with Brazil was signed with four so-called ABCD multinational grain trading companies that China has in the past identified as working to advance American interests. They included Bunge and Louis Dreyfuss whose import rights had been restored the previous day.
At the China-U.S. forum, the director of a Ministry of Commerce's Office of American and Oceania Affairs said that China would buy U.S. soybeans if "the price is competitive, the quality is good and supply is sufficient." These caveats appear to give China an excuse for not meeting targets.
As if they are reading from the same cue cards, most market analyses on Chinese web sites now point out that, indeed, the price of U.S. soybeans is not competitive versus Brazilian soybeans, so there is no incentive to buy from the U.S. Estimated C&F values posted daily on a Chinese feed market site show that the cost of importing soybeans from U.S. origins is now higher than costs of importing from Brazil. Many analyses cite a Chinese purchase of 20 Brazilian cargoes to highlight Brazil's price advantage.
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| Source: Data from feedtrade.com.cn. |
It is also a bad sign that China's Sinograin--the government's grain reserve company--did not show up to buy at the Shanghai International Import Expo where Sinograin had made deals in the past. At the 2023 Expo Sinograin signed an agreement to purchase 12 mmt of soybeans from the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The 2023 purchases followed Sinograin commitments to buy a cumulative 39.8 mmt of soybeans at the previous 5 Shanghai Import Expos.
State media spoke glowingly of the Shanghai International Import Expo, a signature initiative of Xi to promote consumption and use China's big market to gain global influence. Besides claiming that the U.S. agricultural forum represented a revival of trade ties, Economic Daily pointed out how COFCO's agreements to buy wheat from 7 countries, sugar from Brazil, coconut water from Thailand, wine from Italy and Chile, and cheddar cheese from New Zealand advance China's Belt and Road Initiative, embody its "buying globally and benefiting the world" concept, and improve residents diets by providing more high-quality protein sources.
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