The U.S. has high egg prices in the shadow of last year's avian influenza, but China has a surplus of laying hens attracted by strong profits that have now turned into losses.
U.S. egg prices are at less than half their March 2025 peak, but they are still at an historically high level. A USDA analysis shows that the spike in U.S. egg prices coincided with an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The loss of over 50 million laying hens coincided with the peak holiday demand season, sending prices skyrocketing. The price spike in 2022 followed an earlier HPAI outbreak.
Egg prices in the U.S. and China have been diverging. Egg prices in China and the U.S. were roughly equal until 2021 when an earlier HPAI outbreak led to a spike in U.S. prices. After the impacts of that outbreak dissipated, China and U.S. prices were briefly at parity again in 2023. Prices diverged again as the HPAI outbreak began driving U.S. egg prices skyward and Chinese egg prices tumbled. The average Chinese wholesale price reported by the agriculture ministry fell from about US$ 1 per dozen in September 2024 to about 60 cents per dozen in the second week of July 2025. The average Chinese wholesale price of eggs last week was down 20 percent from a year earlier.
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| Wholesale market prices, China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Chinese prices converted to cents per dozen using average weight in China and official exchange rate. |
Last week China's National Development and Reform Commission reported an even steeper 40-percent decline in the average farm gate price for eggs since the second week of July last year. The report estimated that a laying hen will generate a loss of about $5.80 for its owner based on July 2025 prices of eggs and feed, a reversal from an estimated profit of $6.23 a year ago.
According to a National Bureau of Statistics report this week, egg production for the first half of 2025 was up a modest 1.5 percent from a year earlier.
A commentary posted on a Chinese animal feed news site explained that strong profits in past years have attracted new entrants to China's egg industry, adding large numbers of laying hens. The Chinese industry is hoping that production of mooncakes and other snacks during the upcoming peak consumption season will sop up excess egg supplies. Some eggs are being frozen for use during the fall months.
An article last month on excess egg production capacity noted that inventories of Chinese eggs had already hit 1.324 billion in April--the highest in the last 3 years---and there had been no egg price recovery during another peak period--the Dragon Boat festival. An egg glut resulted from weak consumption due to effects of an economic slowdown on consumer incomes, and increased supply from the entry of large-scale farms boosted supply. A rebound has been elusive since producers hoping for a rebound have been slow to cull less-productive hens.
China has not reported HPAI outbreaks recently, but China has had devastating outbreaks of HPAI that included human deaths about 20 years ago and in 2012-13.
China's low and less volatile egg prices reflect low barriers to entry and lax regulation. The widespread use of antibiotics--despite a ban on 11 antibiotics in livestock production 5 years ago--has given rise to a market for "antibiotic-free" eggs. However, consumers' confidence in such eggs was shaken two months ago when food regulators in Shandong Province found levels of two antibiotics that exceeded food safety limits in their testing of "zero antibiotic" eggs sampled from a supermarket chain in Weifang City. The eggs were purchased from a company in one of China's largest poultry regions and certified free of antibiotics by a third-party organization. The findings attracted widespread attention on Chinese social media.
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