China's third-quarter pork output in 2022 was about the same as a year ago, yet prices are about twice as high. Something's wrong with this picture.
Data in the National Bureau of Statistics' Q3 2022 report indicate pork output was 12.1 million metric tons, almost the same as last year's Q3 output of 12 million metric tons. The number of hogs slaughtered during Q3 this year was almost identical to last year, at 154.5 million, and the inventory of hogs was slightly higher than a year ago.
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| Data from National Bureau of Statistics quarterly reports. |
The report claimed that the hog price was up 36 percent from a year ago. The September consumer price index also reported a 36-percent increase in consumer pork prices. However, these figures vastly understate the increase in prices indicated by Ministry of Agriculture price reports which show wholesale pork prices nearly twice as high as last October and hog prices are up nearly 140 percent from last October.
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| Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs weekly livestock and feed reports. |
The National Bureau of Statistics raw material price report for mid-October showed an even larger increase in prices, reporting an average hog price of 26.5 yuan per kg, up 150 percent from 10.5 yuan a year ago.
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| National Bureau of Statistics Raw Material Purchase prices. |
Consumer demand is not driving up pork prices. Per-capita household expenditures so far in 2022 were up a paltry 1.5 percent from a year earlier, and urban expenditures were down -0.2 percent.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/07/business/china-strategic-pork-reserve.html
NYT October 2019
”China Turns to Strategic Pork Reserve
The tariff fight has added to Chinese shoppers’ grocery bills. How is the government coping? By tapping its gigantic stockpile of emergency meat.
“Oct. 7, 2019
BEIJING — When supplies of China’s favorite meat run low, Beijing calls upon its strategic pork reserve, a name that brings to mind vast piles of sausages, bacon and spareribs housed in secret underground vaults across the country.
That’s not quite how it works. But China’s pork reserve is real, and it is basically a carnivore’s version of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which keeps the United States flush with oil during emergencies. Pork prices in China today are skyrocketing, the result of an epidemic that is ravaging the country’s hogs, and the government has been drawing upon its reserves to lift supplies for shoppers.
The trade war with the United States hasn’t helped — China’s retaliatory tariffs have made imports of American food and agriculture products more expensive. As the two countries’ negotiators meet this week in Washington for another round of trade talks, ballooning grocery bills are adding to the pressure on Beijing to reach a deal.
Last month, 30,000 metric tons of pork from the national reserve was sold into the market ahead of Oct. 1, the 70th anniversary of modern China’s founding. A batch of 9,600 tons was released in January, shortly before Chinese New Year. Local governments have also tapped their stores.