Skip to main content

China's Hog Feed Output Explodes

China's feed output rose 10.4 percent in 2021 to reach 293 million metric tons (mmt), according to data released by the country's feed industry association.  That was the second year of increased feed output, corresponding to the rebuilding of China's swine herd from the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic that wiped out millions of pigs during 2018-19. 

Source: China Feed Industry Association and China National Bureau of Statistics.

The 40.68-mmt increase in feed production during 2021 was, by far, the largest single-year increase in output reported by the association since it began counting feed output in the 1980s. The 2020 increase of 23.9 mmt had previously been the largest-ever increase in feed output. The largest-ever decrease in feed output of -8.78 mmt came during the worst year of the ASF crisis in 2019.

Swine feed accounted for all the increase in manufactured feed output in 2021. Feed for poultry meat went down slightly last year. The feed data indicate a brief poultry boom during the pork shortage came to an end in 2021. Feed for laying hens was relatively stagnant, according to the feed industry association.

Data from China Feed Industry Association.

Data from China Feed Industry Association.

The recovery of swine feed output is much stronger than the recovery of pork output. Feed produced for swine increased 41.5 mmt while production of pork rose 11.8 mmt--a ratio of nearly 4:1. The boom in feed output corresponds to the aggressive expansion of large hog-producing companies, all of whom own large feed mills. They are probably replacing backyard farms that fed pigs cheap low-value fodder and restaurant waste or milled their own feed. The big companies--which include several of the biggest feed-manufacturing companies in the world--are also probably more likely to report their numbers to the feed industry association. 

Data from China Feed Industry Association and China National Bureau of Statistics.

The feed boom has set off alarm bells in China's agriculture ministry. Last year, agricultural officials issued guidelines calling for feed companies to find substitutes for corn and soybean meal in animal feed. The feed industry association's report dutifully claims that the volume of corn used in feed declined 24.9 percent in 2021 as corn's proportion in feed formulations was reduced 15.3 percentage points. Mills increased their use of substitutes for corn that include wheat, rice, sorghum, barley, wheat bran, and rice bran. 

Use of soybean meal increased 5.7 percent, which the association pointed out is slower than the rate of growth in feed output. The proportion of soybean meal used in feed declined 1.4 percentage points, the association said. Use of other oilseed meals, including rapeseed and cottonseed meal, increased 17.9 percent. 

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...
15 comments
Read more

Divergence in U.S. & Chinese egg prices

High egg prices are a hot topic in the United States. China, in contrast, has a glut of eggs and depressed prices.  The March 14, 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service weekly eggs market overview reported that U.S. egg prices continued declining during the second week of March as the supply situation improved. No significant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have occurred in March and U.S. egg demand is relatively light. The average U.S. wholesale price for Grade A large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen, down sharply from their February peak.  Until 2021, Chinese and U.S. wholesale egg prices had been roughly equal at about $1-to-$2 per dozen with no trend. U.S. prices fluctuated more than Chinese prices, so the U.S. price was sometimes higher, sometimes lower than the Chinese price after converting them to dollars per dozen.  Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen. Sources: USDA and China Ministry of Agricult...
Post a Comment
Read more

China's Corn & Wheat Imports Down 97% From Last Year

China's first customs data for 2025 feature a 97-percent decline in corn and wheat imports from a year earlier. Soybean imports were up slightly by volume (but down in value), and dairy, pork, poultry, and seafood imports rebounded year-on-year. Life was less sweet in China with a 93.7% decline in sugar imports, and drinking appears to be up as wine and beer imports posted gains.   China's agricultural imports for January-February 2025 were down 14.7 percent from a year earlier. The value of farm and food goods imported for the first two months of 2025 totaled $30.7 billion, down $5.26 billion from the same period in 2024. China's exports of agricultural products during January-February totaled $15.2 billion, up $393 million from a year earlier.  Data from China Customs Administration website. As usual, soybeans were the largest component of China's agricultural imports during January-February 2025 with a value of $6.3 billion. Meat imports were valued at $4.1 billion, ...
2 comments
Read more