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China MOA S&D Estimates (Feb 2017)

The Ministry of Agriculture's China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for February 2017 made only slight changes for the 2016/17 market year.

The estimate of China's corn imports for 2016/17 was cut to 800,000 metric tons, down from 1 million metric tons last month. The CASDE has shaved their estimate of corn imports from 2.4 million metric tons estimated in July and August last summer to 1 million metric tons November-January, and now 800,000 metric tons. The report's authors attribute the lower import number to China's corn prices gradually falling in line with international prices after elimination of the temporary reserve policy. CASDE says the price of imported corn with 1% tariff for arrival in southern China was 1700 yuan per metric ton in January 2017, which they say exceeds the cost of domestic corn by 120 yuan. They expect the price of imported corn to be in the 1650-1750 yuan per metric ton range during 2016/17. The average wholesale price in production regions is estimated at 1500-1650 yuan.

Estimated industrial processing of corn for 2016/17 was raised by 500,000 metric tons due to higher rates of production than expected. Total consumption of corn is estimated at 211.22 million metric tons. Production is estimated at 215.33 mmt (lower than the National Bureau of Statistics estimate of 219.55 mmt). CASDE estimates that production of corn will outpace production and inventories will rise by 4.4 million metric tons during 2016/17.

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, Feb 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Jan 2016/17 Feb
Planted area 1000 ha 38,117 36,026 36,026
Harvested area 1000 ha 38,117 36,021 36,021
Yield Kg/ha 5,892 5,978 5,978
Production MMT 224.58 215.33 215.33
Imports MMT 3.2 1.0 0.8
Consumption MMT 194.09 210.72 211.22
--Food MMT 7.65 7.82 7.82
--Feed MMT 121.01 133.53 133.53
--Industrial use MMT 54.17 57.75 58.25
--Seed MMT 1.66 1.61 1.61
Loss and other MMT 9.56 10.01 10.01
Exports MMT 0.01 0.5 0.5
Surplus MMT 33.73 5.11 4.41

The soybean yield for 2016/17 was raised by 10 kg to 1758 kg per ha due to good growing conditions in eastern Heilongjiang Province that offset reduced yields due to drought in some other areas. Soybean production was estimated at 12.57 million metric tons for 2016/17. The output of high quality soybeans was lower than expected; more poor quality soybeans were used directly as feed. Imports of soybeans are estimated at 85.5 million metric tons.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, Feb 2017)
Item Unit  2015/16   2016/17 Jan  2016/17 Feb
Planted area 1000 ha 6,590 7,156 7,156
Harvested area 1000 ha 6,590 7,150 7,150
Yield Kg/ha 1,762 1,748 1758
Production MMT 11.61 12.5 12.57
Imports MMT 83.23 85.31 85.31
Consumption MMT 96.67 99.77 99.87
--Crushing MMT 82.89 85.50 85.50
--Food MMT 10.35 11.18 11.18
--Seed MMT 0.54 0.61 0.61
Loss and other MMT 2.89 2.48 2.58
Exports MMT 0.11 0.20 0.2
Surplus MMT -1.96 -2.16 -2.19

Cotton production and import estimates are also unchanged. Cotton production is estimated at 4.72 mmt, a little lower than the National Bureau of Statistics estimate of 5.4 mmt. Imports are estimated to be 900,000 metric tons, slightly more than the tariff rate quota. Cotton consumption was raised to 7.59 mmt due to improved global economic conditions since the third quarter of 2016 that is expected to raise demand for textile exports. The ending cotton inventory will be drawn down by year 2 million metric tons during 2016/17 to 9.13 million metric tons, but still more than year's consumption.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, Feb 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16  2016/17 Jan  2016/17 Feb
Begin inventory MMT 12.8 11.11 11.11
Planted area 1000 ha 3,267 3,100 3,100
Yield Kg/ha 1,510 1,523 1,523
Production MMT 4.93 4.72 4.72
Imports MMT 0.96 0.90 0.90
Consumption MMT 7.56 7.54 7.59
Exports MMT 0.02 0.01 0.02
End Inventory MMT 11.11 9.18 9.13

Soybean oil production was raised slightly by 10,000 mt.

China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, Feb 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16  2016/17 Jan  2016/17 Feb
Production MMT 25.3 25.85 25.89
--Soy oil MMT 14.74 15.16 15.17
--Rapeseed oil MMT 5.6 5.61 5.61
--Peanut oil MMT 3.01 3.18 3.18
Imports MMT 5.81 5.65 5.6
--Palm oil MMT 3.39 3.3 3.25
--Rapeseed oil MMT 0.77 0.8 0.75
--Soy oil MMT 0.59 0.58 0.58
Consumption MMT 31.17 31.41 31.43
--Urban MMT 20.41 20.8 21.4
--Rural MMT 10.76 10.61 10.03
Exports MMT 0.11 0.13 0.13
Surplus MMT -0.17 -0.04 -0.07


China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, Feb 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17
Planted area 1000 ha 1423 1433
--sugar cane 1000 ha 1295 1270
--sugar beets 1000 ha 128 163
Yield


--sugar cane MT/ha 60.3 60
--sugar beets MT/ha 53.85 52.5
Sugar output MMT 8.7 9.9
--sugar cane MMT 7.85 8.85
--sugar beets MMT 0.85 1.05
Imports MMT 3.73 3.5
Consumption MMT 15.2 15
Exports MMT 0.15 0.07
Surplus MMT -2.92 -1.67
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