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China MOA S&D Estimates (Nov 2016)

China's Ministry of Agriculture's (MOA) November China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its estimate of the country's 2016/17 corn crop by 1.15 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a higher yield compared with October's estimate. They attribute the higher yield to a frost that came 5-10 days later than usual in northeastern provinces. Imports for 2016/17 were reduced to 1 mmt this month as MOA determined that the drop in Chinese corn prices had rendered imported corn uncompetitive. Industrial use was increased by 500,000 metric tons due to subsidies for corn processors in northeastern provinces. Loss was increased by 200,000 metric tons as a result of rain and snow in the northeast that degraded quality of some corn.

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Nov. Change from Oct
Planted area 1000 ha 38,117 36,026
Harvested area 1000 ha 38,117 35,990
Yield Kg/ha 5892 5935 +32
Production MMT 224.58 213.6 +1.15
Imports MMT 3.2 1.0 -0.8
Consumption MMT 194.05 210.27 +0.7
--Food MMT 7.65 7.72
--Feed MMT 121.01 133.48
--Industrial use MMT 54.17 57.45 +0.5
--Seed MMT 1.66 1.61
Loss and other MMT 9.56 10.01 +0.2
Exports MMT 0.01 0.5
Surplus MMT 33.72 3.83 -0.35

The MOA has whittled down its estimate of the 2016/17 corn surplus from about 10 mmt in July-August to just 3.8 mmt this month. Production and import estimates have been scaled back, and consumption has been boosted.

There were few changes in MOA's balance sheets for other major commodities. MOA's estimate of soybean imports was raised by 1.8 mmt to 85.31 mmt. That increase is slightly larger than the increase in soybean crushing estimated for 2016/17. MOA explains that increased swine inventories will spur the larger crush due to increased demand for protein meal. However, MOA says slower 2.5-percent growth in soybean imports is due to stricter environmental protection which is causing swine numbers to decline in some southern provinces.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Nov. Change from Oct
Planted area 1000 ha 6,590 7156
Harvested area 1000 ha 6,590 7150
Yield Kg/ha 1,762 1748
Production MMT 11.61 12.5
Imports MMT 81.42 85.31 +1.81
Consumption MMT 94.76 99.72 +1.52
--Crushing MMT 81.00 85.50 +1.50
--Food MMT 10.35 11.18
--Seed MMT 0.54 0.56
Loss and other MMT 2.87 2.48 +0.02
Exports MMT 0.11 0.20
Surplus MMT -1.84 -2.11 +0.29

There was only a slight reduction in cotton stocks in the November balance sheet compared with last month. Modest imports, declining production and nearly steady consumption will reduce cotton stocks from 11.1 mmt to 9.27 mmt over the course of 2016/17.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Nov. Change from Oct
Begin inventory MMT 12.8 11.11 -0.02
Planted area 1000 ha 33 31
Yield Kg/ha 1,510 1526 -18
Production MMT 4.93 4.73 -0.05
Imports MMT 0.96 0.97
Consumption MMT 7.54 7.52
Exports MMT 0.02 0.02
End Inventory MMT 11.13 9.27 -0.08


China edible oils supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, November 2016)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Nov. Change from Oct
Production MMT 25.03 25.81 +0.48
--Soy oil MMT 14.44 15.17 +0.29
--Rapeseed oil MMT 5.63 5.55 +0.18
--Peanut oil MMT 3.01 3.18 +0.02
Imports MMT 5.58 5.5 +0.10
--Palm oil MMT 3.42 3.2
--Rapeseed oil MMT 0.74 0.75
--Soy oil MMT 0.65 0.58
Consumption MMT 31.17 31.38
--Urban MMT 20.41 20.55
--Rural MMT 10.76 10.83
Exports MMT 0.11 0.13
Surplus MMT -0.66 -0.19 +0.58


China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Nov. Change from Oct
Planted area 1000 ha 1435 1433
--sugar cane 1000 ha 1301 1270
--sugar beets 1000 ha 134 163
Yield MT/ha 54.38 56.25 +1.87
--sugar cane MT/ha 60.75 60
--sugar beets MT/ha 48 52.5 +3.75
Sugar output MMT 8.7 9.9
--sugar cane MMT 7.85 8.85
--sugar beets MMT 0.85 1.05
Imports MMT 3.5 3.5
Consumption MMT 15.2 15.1
Exports MMT 0.16 0.07
Surplus MMT -3.16 -1.77 -1.67
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