Skip to main content

Chinese Dairy Industry: The Chosen 20

This month, China held a "D20" summit of its top dairy companies to bolster confidence in the industry  which is still living under the shadow of the melamine adulteration incident that poisoned infants in 2008. Government officials hope to revitalize the industry by anointing a group of strong companies who agree to vigilant quality control, self-regulation, to invest in modern farms, acquire high-producing cows, plant forage crops, and build reputable brand names.

The forum was addressed by top officials--Vice Premier Wang Yang, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu, and a retired vice minister who heads the dairy industry association. It was held at the presigious Diaoyutai guesthouse in Beijing. Setting the tone for the conference, Minister Han praised the industry's achievements in recovering from the 2008 crisis, but acknowledged that the Chinese dairy industry faces quite a few challenges and difficulties.

The 7-year overhaul of the dairy industry--encouraged by government subsidies and action plans--boosted product quality, said Minister Han. Milk  tested free of melamine and other forbidden additives this year, and all milk from the "above-scale" farms meets national standards for protein and fat. The head of the inspection and quarantine agency boasts that the quality of Chinese dairy products has never been better.

Minister Han--after reciting achievements--acknowledged that some Chinese dairy companies do not produce high-quality products, consumers still lack confidence in Chinese dairy products, cheaper imported milk is pressuring the industry, and resource constraints hinder the industry's growth. Nevertheless, Minister Han insisted that the industry must "wave the banner of safety and quality," revitalize the industry, and regain consumers' confidence.

A more candid assessment of the dairy summit remarked that the industry faces a "protracted war" to revitalize itself. Despite being the third-largest dairy industry in the world, imports have increased six-fold over six years and China imports a third of its milk supply, this commentary noted. The severe lack of confidence in domestic milk products is reflected in dairy industry association data showing that only one-fourth of the nation's infant formula supply is produced domestically. Chinese parents went to extraordinary lengths to procure infant formula they could trust from supermarkets in Hong Kong and even Europe.

The lack of confidence in Chinese infant formula got attention from the highest levels of Chinese leadership. In May 2013, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a meeting that pondered ways to rebuild confidence in Chinese infant formula. The revitalization of the dairy industry was a topic of discussion at this year's National Peoples Congress.

Minister Han explained that the government's strategy is to let companies play the main role as self-regulators with the government playing a secondary role. The "D20" summit was attended by Chinese companies who are expected to form the industry's core: Yili, Mengniu, Modern Dairy, Guangming (Bright), Liaoning Huishan Dairy, Shengmu, Sanyuan Foods, Zhongken Dairy, Wandashan, Shijiazhuang Junlebao, New Hope Dairy Holdings, Heilongjiang Feihe (Firmus), Beingmate, Nanjing Weigang, Tianjin Jialihe Muye, Xinjiang West Region Spring, Fujian Changfu, Henan Huahua Niu, Jinan Jiabao Milk, and Xi’an Yinqiao (Silver Bridge). It's not clear who drew up the guest list. Presumably, no foreign-invested companies were invited.

The unspoken theme of the Beijing dairy summit was voiced by the commentary. The government's vision is to drive small, unreliable companies out of business while creating 3-to-5 big Chinese companies. Foreign-invested companies will be forced to "obey China's monopoly law." Breaking the "monopoly" of foreign milk suppliers is a chief objective. Chinese companies hope to "overcome foreign companies like Mead Johnson, Abbott Labs, and Dumex that have dominated the market for so long."

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...

Feed Boom & Cratering Grain Imports; China Leaves Us Guessing

In the first half of 2025 China increased its meat and egg production by a combined 1.58 million metric tons (mmt) from a year earlier, a moderate increase of 2.5%. Meanwhile, animal feed output during H1 2025 compiled from feed industry association reports increased by 14.5 mmt (+10 percent) from a year ago. China's 14.5-mmt increase feed output growth outpaced the 1.58-mmt growth in meat production by a ratio of 9:1. It's hard to make sense of these inconsistent figures.  [note: The June 2025 feed industry association report has a 7.7% yoy growth rate for feed output which is inconsistent with the 10.1% growth shown here calculated by comparing data from monthly reports issued last year. Growth rates for complete feed were 8.1%, concentrates -1.5%; additives 6.9%. These inconsistencies are common in the feed industry association reports, a reason for doubting the accuracy of this data.] There is no boom in demand for feed ingredients to fuel a huge increase in feed production...