Skip to main content

Policy Reverses Corn Flow

Normally, the lowest prices for Chinese corn are in the northeastern provinces. This region has huge supplies and it is far from the big markets in coastal areas. As you go south, the corn price tends to go higher. Corn typically flows out of the northeast to southern regions where there is excess demand.

This year, the government announced a support price for purchasing 30 mmt of corn in the northeast, about half of the harvest in that region. The price structure is now distorted, with northeastern prices higher than in provinces to the south.

A farmer in Zhengding County of Hebei Province complains, "This year the corn price is low, and I can't sell at a price that will bring a profit." The price in Hebei averaged about 1.6 yuan/kg last October, and it fell to 1.33 yuan/kg in January, as new corn came on the market. Farmers' profits have been cut by half. In some areas of the province, the price is just 1.2 yuan/kg.

By comparison, the price in the northeast is about 1.5 yuan. Grain Bureau monitoring data reported the Hebei price on Jan. 5 at 1.24-1.36 yuan, compared with 1.44-1.52 yuan in Liaoning and 1.42-1.50 yuan in Jilin.

The hardest-hit areas of Hebei, like the Baoding region, have the lowest corn prices, which are attracting traders from the Northeast and Southern provinces to buy cheap corn. One grain trader who came from Jilin said he can make money by purchasing grain and shipping it back to high-price Jilin. This is a reversal of the usual flow of corn.

In effect, the government is buying up 30 mmt of northeastern grain to store in warehouses, and corn from Hebei is coming north to meet commercial needs.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...

Divergence in U.S. & Chinese egg prices

High egg prices are a hot topic in the United States. China, in contrast, has a glut of eggs and depressed prices.  The March 14, 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service weekly eggs market overview reported that U.S. egg prices continued declining during the second week of March as the supply situation improved. No significant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have occurred in March and U.S. egg demand is relatively light. The average U.S. wholesale price for Grade A large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen, down sharply from their February peak.  Until 2021, Chinese and U.S. wholesale egg prices had been roughly equal at about $1-to-$2 per dozen with no trend. U.S. prices fluctuated more than Chinese prices, so the U.S. price was sometimes higher, sometimes lower than the Chinese price after converting them to dollars per dozen.  Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen. Sources: USDA and China Ministry of Agricult...

China's Corn & Wheat Imports Down 97% From Last Year

China's first customs data for 2025 feature a 97-percent decline in corn and wheat imports from a year earlier. Soybean imports were up slightly by volume (but down in value), and dairy, pork, poultry, and seafood imports rebounded year-on-year. Life was less sweet in China with a 93.7% decline in sugar imports, and drinking appears to be up as wine and beer imports posted gains.   China's agricultural imports for January-February 2025 were down 14.7 percent from a year earlier. The value of farm and food goods imported for the first two months of 2025 totaled $30.7 billion, down $5.26 billion from the same period in 2024. China's exports of agricultural products during January-February totaled $15.2 billion, up $393 million from a year earlier.  Data from China Customs Administration website. As usual, soybeans were the largest component of China's agricultural imports during January-February 2025 with a value of $6.3 billion. Meat imports were valued at $4.1 billion, ...