Caution on Re-start of corn exports

According to a report from China corn market net on Dec. 26, traders say Chinese officials have decided to postpone their issuance of new corn export quotas, cut back on the amount of quotas, and may not give any policy support [e.g. VAT rebate] for exports in order to "control prices and ensure domestic supplies."

The article says that China's decline in corn exports will allow American gain traders to maintain their Asian market share. Chinese corn prices have already bounced back from their two-year low due to the Chinese government's support of prices through increased reserve procurement.

China mainly exports corn to South Korea and Japan. According to customs statistics, this year's exports through November totaled 235,379 mt, down 95%.

This week the government required local grain bureaus to procure an additional 20 mmt of corn from farmers, bringing the total to 30 mmt.

Here is the planned procurement in the latest round which is to be completed by the end of April:
Inner Mongolia 3.3 mmt
Liaoning Province 3.5 mmt
Jilin Province 8.7 mmt
Heilongjiang 4.5 mmt
Total: 20 mmt
Relevant departments are to make their grain procurement plans in accordance with market conditions.

According to the notice from the government, all of the funds allocated for grain procurement and drying should be used; they should not be embezzled

Comments

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...

Feed Boom & Cratering Grain Imports; China Leaves Us Guessing

In the first half of 2025 China increased its meat and egg production by a combined 1.58 million metric tons (mmt) from a year earlier, a moderate increase of 2.5%. Meanwhile, animal feed output during H1 2025 compiled from feed industry association reports increased by 14.5 mmt (+10 percent) from a year ago. China's 14.5-mmt increase feed output growth outpaced the 1.58-mmt growth in meat production by a ratio of 9:1. It's hard to make sense of these inconsistent figures. [note: The June 2025 feed industry association report has a 7.7% yoy growth rate for feed output which is inconsistent with the 10.1% growth shown here calculated by comparing data from monthly reports issued last year. Growth rates for complete feed were 8.1%, concentrates -1.5%; additives 6.9%. These inconsistencies are common in the feed industry association reports, a reason for doubting the accuracy of this data.] There is no boom in demand for feed ingredients to fuel a huge increase in feed production...

Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Search This Blog