Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's imports of milk powder have been plummeting after the country created a glut that caused Chinese milk prices to plummet 30% over the last 4 years. Subsidies stimulated expansion of China's dairy industry at the same time growth in Chinese milk consumption shifted into reverse. Imports of value-added products such as cheese and whey protein have been more robust until now, but replacing these imports is one of the main solutions Chinese dairy industry leaders are pursuing to pull the industry out of its crisis. China's agriculture ministry held a symposium in Beijing on June 25 to discuss how to rescue China's dairy industry from plunging prices and financial losses. While it appears that excessive subsidies got the industry into the predicament in the first place, Minister of Agriculture Han Jun prodded local officials to pursue a lengthy menu of support measures that include farm and processor subsidies, credit support, breeding improvements, efforts to boost d...

Corporate behemoths are gaining a commanding position in China's hog farming sector. In 2024 twenty companies listed on Chinese stock exchanges produced a combined 168 million hogs, 24 percent of China's national hog output reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. The publicly listed hog farming companies had a combined market cap of 615 billion yuan (about $85 billion) in February. These companies claim to have transformed hog farming with their high-tech operations, but they haven't eliminated the volatility that stems from movements in feed prices and profit margins. Just 3 of those companies account for most of the growth in China's corporate hog sales. Muyuan Foods stands out with hog output growing from 3.1 million to 71.6 million between 2016 and 2024. Wens Foodstuff lost its place as top hog producer despite nearly doubling its hog sales from 17 million to over 30 million head between 2016 and 2024. New Hope's output grew from 1.7 million head to 16.5 ...

China's imports of agricultural products during May 2025 totaled $19.9 billion, almost the same as its imports in May last year, according to Chinese customs data. May was the first month in 2025 that Chinas' agricultural imports did not decrease from a year earlier. China customs administration definition of "agricultural." The most prominent changes in China's May 2025 agricultural import bill from a year ago were a $1.13-billion increase in soybean purchases that was offset by a $902-million decrease in cereal grain imports, and a $473-million plunge in cotton imports. Imports of sugar, fats and oils, dairy, cassava, and seafood were up. Imports of fruit, nuts and meat were down year-on-year. Calculated from China Customs Administration data. China's imports of Brazilian soybeans soared to 12 million metric tons in May as seasonal arrivals from South America ramped up and inspections at the border accelerated. The May soybean import volume was up almost 3-f...

Chinese officials have been pushing feed mills and livestock farmers to reduce their use of soybean meal in animal feed for more than 5 years. They like to point to percentages of soybean meal and corn in manufactured feed reported by the quasi-government China Feed Industry Association (CFIA) as evidence of progress on this campaign. However, these percentages have no correspondence to soybean imports and are essentially meaningless.  CFIA has included the percentages of soybean meal and corn in animal feed in its reports of monthly feed production since 2021. CFIA occasionally skips a month, never issues a December report, and occasionally omits the percentages. Agricultural officials occasionally cherry-pick percentages from these reports to demonstrate the success of their programs to cut soybean meal use. The percentage of soybean meal compiled from monthly CFIA reports from 2022 to 2025 in the chart below shows no obvious trend in the percentage. High values of 15.6...

In another sign that Chinese officials are eager to keep farmers happy during a year of low crop prices, the Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) pledged to increase financing for purchase of summer grains. ADBC allocated 150 billion yuan (over $20 billion) to fund purchase of this year's winter wheat, rapeseed, and the early-season rice crop, an increase of 40 billion yuan (about $5.5 billion) from last year. The announcement was made at the ADBC's June 13 meeting to launch financing of summer grain procurement . The ADBC is the Chinese government's rural policy bank that finances procurement of commodities for government reserves and other rural policies, viewed as a backstop to stabilize markets. The bank's most recent public report for 2023 said ADBC financed more than half of grain that year with funds totaling 323.7 billion yuan issued by the bank. The 2023 report also showed a 70-percent increase in nonperforming loans that year. As of June 2025 the ADBC...

China's wheat crop was hit by drought this year, but authorities are nevertheless scrambling to prop up sinking wheat prices. Several years ago, Chinese officials made farmers tear up fruit trees and cash crops so more food grains could be planted. Now farmers are seeing low yields and bad prices for the wheat officials forced them to plant. As reported here last month , there have been reports of sustained drought conditions in parts of China's wheat belt. During an inspection of the wheat harvest in Henan Province last week China's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun acknowledged that parts of the largest wheat-producing province had experienced sustained drought, but he insisted that efforts to ramp up irrigation had reduced damage to the crop. Most of the article recounted Han's urging of officials and farmers to boost wheat yields and improve disaster prevention efforts. A report by futures market analysts gave an evaluation of the new wheat crop th...

China's Hulunbuir State Farm Group signed an agricultural cooperation agreement with Brazil's National Agricultural Society in February 2025. What is this Chinese company with an unpronounceable name? We're likely to see more of these companies in the global agricultural space, so let's take a look at who they are. "Hulunbuir" is a Mongolian name for the district of Inner Mongolia where one of hundreds of Soviet-style state farms were set up in the 1950s to consolidate communist party control over empty parts of the country. Hulunbuir is made up of grasslands that resemble the U.S. Great Plains or parts of Brazil's interior. In recent years these bureaucratic operations have been dressed up as companies with new names like Hulunbuir State Farm Group. Statistics indicate State Farms control 7.2 million hectares of cropland and produce 5-to-6 percent of China's grain output.  One of Hulunbuir Group's farms. Source: Hulunbuir web site . Brazilian news...