Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's pig farmers are learning to live with a weakening but still widespread African swine fever (ASF) virus. Chinese officials--who always prioritize China's image over everything else--have lost interest in ASF now that it is no longer a crisis. There are disagreements about the extent of African swine fever infections, but no one disputes that the disease is endemic in the country and has joined the cocktail of pathogens that circulate in China--the world's biggest pork producer...and the world's largest petri dish. There has been controversy over the extent of Chinese ASF infections since March when two securities analysts warned that a survey questionnaire showed widespread infection in northern China. Other articles immediately tried to debunk the report by quoting one or two farm managers who told them infections had peaked in December-January but said their company's farms were no longer experiencing serious problems. The agriculture ministry warned agains...

A photo of the Director General of the United Nations Food agency and China's agriculture minister appears to convey a message that China and the UN are one and the same. The photo shows Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) director Qu Dongyu--a former Vice Minister of Agriculture in China--standing side by side with Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian in identical poses, wearing identical suits, and even similar body shapes and hairstyles--only the neckties are different--with the Chinese and UN flags also side-by-side in the background. Neither the photo nor the meeting report were posted on the English version of the Agriculture Ministry's web site, so we can conclude this was meant for a Chinese audience. China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs publicity photo of UN Food and Agriculture Organization Director General Qu Dongyu and China Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian. Qu Dongyu was elected Director General of the UN'...

China's Ag Minister met with Iranian and U.S. officials last week. The contrasting reports on the meetings perhaps reveal who China thinks its friends are.  On February 15, 2023, Tang Renjian, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs met with Iranian Agriculture Minister Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad in conjunction with Iranian President Raisi's meeting with Xi Jinping. The meeting focused on Minister Tang's proposals for China-Iran cooperation in agriculture to support the "consensus" reached by Presidents Xi and Raisi, according to an article posted on the English Ministry of Agriculture site (it also appeared on the Chinese version ). Minister Tang proposed holding a policy dialogue, and suggested exchanges in dryland agriculture, new plant varieties, soil health, and trade cooperation. The Agriculture Ministry publicists thought it was very important for the world to see the Chinese agriculture minister joking around with his Iranian counterpart: On February 17,...

As China's campaign to root out grain corruption grinds through its second year, communist party inspectors have determined that a parallel system of watchers and enforcers is needed to stop the bribery and trickery that threaten national food security.  A year ago communist party inspectors celebrated their success in nabbing mostly low-level granary managers . Since then more cases have come to light, including take-downs of people at the very top of the sprawling grain reserve system. Zhang Wufeng--head of the government bureau that oversees grain reserves-- was expelled from the communist party in December . The Deputy Director of Sinograin--the state-owned company that manages the reserves was also caught. Last April inspectors in Heilongjiang Province--China's largest grain-producing region-- said they had investigated over 1000 officials and arrested 92 , including six in the Provincial grain bureau. Propaganda art promoting the grain corruption crackdown...

This year 1,230 Chinese companies applied to import corn, including the world's biggest feed-milling  and swine-producing companies. Starch and ethanol producers that were subsidized in past years to sop up excess corn are now clamoring to import corn as well.  China flipped from corn exporter to importer in a short space of time. Twenty years ago China exported 16.5 million tons of corn, but in 2022 China imported 20.5 million tons and will probably import a similar quantity this year.  Note: Calendar years. Source: China customs statistics. Clues about China's soaring demand for corn can be gleaned from a list of applicants for the tariff rate quota (TRQ) that allows up to 7.2 million tons of corn to be imported at a 1-percent tariff each year. Imports outside the TRQ system are charged a deal-breaking 65 percent tariff. Prospective importers have to apply every September for a share of the following year's quota. Chinese authorities grudgingly agreed to publicly releas...

China's statisticians claim meat output reached a record high in 2022, but meat prices and imports are still at historically high levels.  Official data show that China's meat production increased to a record 92.3 million tons in 2022, up from 88.9 million tons in 2021. The 3.8-percent increase seems inconsistent with 0 growth in feed production through November shown by China's feed industry association and a decline shown by the Alltech feed survey. China's meat prices also remain at historically high levels despite the record output and large portions of the country locked down during 2022.  Customs data also show that meat imports reached 7.2 million tons in 2022, lower than the previous two years due to an increase in pork tariffs and declining pork prices during the first half of the year. However, last year's meat import figure was still higher than any year before African swine fever caused imports to spike during 2019-20. The sum of meat output and imports ...

China's farmers boosted soybean output by 23.7 percent--as directed by authorities--but now they're having trouble finding buyers for the beans.  Chinese officials launched a frenetic campaign to boost soybean output in 2022 in order to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. Statistics show that area planted in soybeans increased 21.7 percent, exceeding the goal for soybean and oilseed planting set by last year's "Number one document" to increase soybean self-sufficiency. Goaded on by very generous soybean subsidies and hectoring by officials, the output exceeded 20 million metric tons for the first time ever.  The harvest total is nevertheless still far short of the 91-million-ton import total for the 2022 calendar year just announced by customs officials. Soybeans harvested on the outskirts of Beijing. The news is not all good for farmers, though. Today an agricultural official fretted about falling soybean prices at a press conference on agricultural affairs . T...