Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

In December 2019 China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a circular calling for normal pork production capacity to be restored by the end of 2020 and normal pork supplies by 2021. The statistics issued by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last week indicate good progress. Trouble is, the increase in productivity implied by the statistics is implausible. We'll set aside NBS's conservative 29-percent decline in swine inventory between Q3 2018 and Q3 2019 during the peak of the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Agriculture Ministry data indicated that the swine population plummeted by more than 40 percent during the epidemic, and the decline in sow numbers was even faster.  In a report on "sustained recovery of livestock production " issued by NBS with Q1 macroeconomic data touted six straight quarters of swine inventory growth. The report said the pork industry increased the inventory of swine on farms to 416 million head at the end ...

China subsidizes production and storage of wheat and rice stockpiles to preserve "food security" for humans, but inedible grain reserves are being auctioned to deflate a bull market for animal feeds. An article by China Grain Net  reported this week that adjustments to opening bids in grain auctions reveal officials' determination to dispose of surplus wheat and rice purchased from 2014 to 2019 under the country's price support program. According to the article, less than 50 million metric tons (mmt) of surplus wheat remains to be sold after a string of auctions held since last year. Over 100 mmt of surplus rice--mostly medium grain--is targeted for disgorgement from bloated reserves. China Grain Net is a grain market news service operated by Sinograin, China's Grain Reserve Corporation. The article focuses on the "huge effect" of an April 12 circular that raised the opening bid price for the wheat auctions by 60 yuan per metric ton. This move was interp...

A simple recipe for statistical flim-flam: pour one cup of random numbers into a bowl, sprinkle with political slogans, fold in statistical algorithms and reams of paper to taste, mix vigorously, and bake until the ingredients are indistinguishable. The final product tastes like cardboard and has no calories or protein, but government officials and bureaucrats will nevertheless grow fat on a steady diet of this concoction. Last month China's statistics bureau presented itself to the United Nations as a technocratic government organization while at home celebrating its role as an inherently political organization.  On March 1 and 5, a delegation from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) participated in a videoconference with the UN statistics committee where the Bureau pledged to participate in statistical monitoring of 2030 sustainable development goals, international big data, improvements of national accounts, environmental accounting, geographic information systems,...

A March 15 exposé on Chinese consumer issues by China's Central TV highlighted the illegal use of banned feed additives in producing sheep. So-called "lean meat powders" (瘦肉精) that promote weight gain in animals were targeted by a CCTV journalist. These medications were originally developed to treat asthma and other breathing issues, but they also act like a steroid by promoting growth of muscle in animals. China has banned all beta agonists since 2002 because one of them--clenbuterol--can cause heart palpitations if ingested in high concentrations. The reporter said he discovered dealers selling mutton from trucks parked at night just outside a food market in Zhengzhou, capital of China's Henan Province. A dealer who sells 200-300 carcasses per night said the meat could not be sold inside the market because the sheep had been fed a medication that would cause it to fail inspections. The dealer would not elaborate, but he did reveal that the meat came from Qing County...

Statistical fraud was uncovered in a month-long investigation of China's Agriculture Ministry last year. This revelation was made by an investigation team from the National Bureau of Statistics that looked into the agricultural ministry's statistics in August 2020. The team  reported its results to Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Yu Kangzhen last week .  The discovery of falsification and fraud in rural statistics was revealed quietly after the communist party had already declared complete victory over rural poverty last year and celebrated a "faster than expected" recovery of the swine herd in 2020. Both achievements were declared on the basis of statistical indicators. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was criticized for not fully implementing the communist party central committee's pronouncements on statistical work and for failing to disseminate the regulations and opinions throughout its statistical bureaucracy. The Statistics Bure...

A resurgence of African swine fever during the winter months has interrupted the rebound of China's hog industry. The slowdown cooled off surging corn prices and sent soybean meal prices into a tailspin.  According to surveys conducted by the "My Ag Commodities" site , sow numbers fell about 3-4 percent each month in January-February 2021 as hog production capacity suffered losses to varying degrees in regions across China. African swine fever and piglet diarrhea increased death rates, and panicked farmers sent numerous juvenile pigs to the abattoir, contributing to the recent decline in hog prices. With sow numbers declining and piglet prices rising in March, pork supplies are likely to be tight again in six months when the peak consumption season returns.  Source: China National Bureau of Statistics raw material purchase prices. A veterinary advice column blames the resurgence of ASF on the increased stocking density of animals, extremely cold weather, and appearance o...

A country that hides poisoned soil, keeps food supplies secret, covers up animal diseases and is unable to count farmland, crops, or animals says it is tracking millions of imported food shipments with anal precision. A government that once covered up toxic infant formula until the 2008 Olympics were over is now sounding an alarm about the dangers of imported food. China's customs administration said last month they have discovered traces of the COVID-19 virus in 79 out of 1.49 MILLION samples taken from packages of imported frozen food since last year. That suggests a 0.0056 percent chance of encountering a virus. The chances of encountering a live virus are even lower, since most of these samples appear to have detected inactive remains of viruses. Authorities said: They had suspended imports from 129 foreign suppliers in 21 countries.  A further 110 companies had voluntarily stopped shipping to China.  Border inspectors have disinfected 18.98 million shipments of imported ...