How Long Can Brazil Sustain China's Soybean Supply?

It's confirmed that Brazilian beans continued to almost single-handedly sustain China's soybean supply during September 2025--and actually increased supplies from the previous month. However, China probably cannot sustain its supplies year-round without importing U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian beans arriving in September represent the end of Brazil's peak shipping season. Brazilian shipments to China began to drop in August and September, which probably means Chinese supplies will begin to shrink in October and November. While Brazil is expected to have another monster harvest beginning in January, the new Brazilian beans probably won't clear Chinese customs until April.

As reported last week, China's September 2025 soybean imports increased by 592,000 metric tons from the previous month to reach 12.87 million metric tons (mmt). Detailed customs data confirm that China's imports of Brazilian soybeans increased by 476,000 mt in September, accounting for most of the increase. Brazil supplied 10.96 million metric tons (mmt) of China's September soybean imports during September, an 85% share (nearly the same as in August). Imports from Uruguay were up 239,000 mt and imports from Argentina were up 123,000 mt. China imported small volumes from Russia, Canada, and Ukraine. (Phantom imports from the U.S. reported by Chinese customs in August did not reappear in September.)  

As reported here last week, the volume of soybeans exported by Brazil to China in a given month roughly corresponds to the volume of Brazilian bean imports reported by Chinese customs 2 months later. However, the comparison does not match exactly and suggests that soybeans seem to have gained some weight somehow in their journey from Brazil to China. 

Brazil exports to China from Brazilian customs.
China's imports from Brazil from Chinese customs.

For example:

• In July 2025 Brazil reported exporting 9.58 mmt of soybeans bound for China. 
• In September, China reported that 10.96 mmt of Brazilian soybeans cleared customs--nearly 1.4 mmt more than Brazil had reported exporting two months earlier. 

The cumulative trade for 2025 so far suggests inflation of China's import volume by about 2.1 mmt

• From January to July 2025, Brazil reported exporting a cumulative total of 58 mmt of soybeans bound for China. 
• From March to September (a 2-month lag), China reported importing a cumulative total of 60.1 mmt of soybeans from Brazil--2.1 mmt more than Brazil reported exporting to China. 

It's evident from the chart above that July was the end of the peak export season for Brazil's soybeans. Brazil's August exports to China totaled 7.93 mmt, down about 1.6 mmt from July. In September Brazil exported 6.77 mmt to China, down 1.16 mmt from August. These monthly declines in Brazilian shipments should result in a drop in China's arrivals of soybeans in October and November. More declines are likely in December 2025 through March 2026. Purchases from Argentina earlier this month will arrive in early 2026 and only fill part of China's deficit if there are no purchases of U.S. soybeans.