Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's Xinjiang "Autonomous" Region is the world's biggest cotton-producing region, but its cotton farms depend on billions of dollars in subsidies to keep them viable in what is also one of the world's most remote regions. Depressed cotton prices this year are inflating the subsidy bill, but officials grudgingly pay the tab to support this "pillar" industry, maintain stability on the fringes of the empire, and avoid relying on cotton imports from unfriendly countries. Rising wages generally spell trouble for production of cotton, one of the most labor-intensive field crops. China's farmers were eager to grow cotton when they were poor in the 1990s, but they have been quick to abandon the crop as wages grew. Cotton production fell in eastern and central regions, and increasingly concentrated in the Xinjiang region bordering central Asian countries where yields are higher, there are fewer alternative crops, and where the government was willing to spe...

China's swine inventory was about 14 percent below its pre-African swine fever epidemic level at the end of Q3 2020--about half last year's deficit. With peak pork consumption season coming up in Q4, it will be hard to continue rebuilding swine inventories in the last three months of 2020.  China's National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data for the third quarter of 2020 that included a swine inventory of 370 million for the quarter's end, 14 percent less than the pre-ASF inventory of 429 million head in Q3 2018. China's swine inventory bottomed out at 307 million in Q3 2019, about 28 percent less than the pre-ASF level. According to the Bureau, the inventory at the end of Q3 was up 9 percent from Q2. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that the swine herd had been growing steadily at 4 percent since June, faster than the 3 percent monthly growth implied by the Statistics Bureau's numbers. In August, the Ag Ministry reported that the swine inve...

In one breath, Chinese agricultural officials in Beijing proclaim a robust recovery of the pork sector, and with the next breath they issue urgent orders to their underlings in the provinces to build more pig farms.  China's agriculture ministry held an October 10, 2020 videoconference where provincial and local officials were admonished not to slack off on implementing hog production support measures as the industry's recovery enters a "key period." Beijing officials explicitly ordered both provincial and local leaders to take seriously their responsibility to expand pork supplies, an indication that engineering a rebound in pork output remains a top "political task" after a year of shrunken pork supplies and record-high prices.  On October 15, the agriculture ministry's press conference on agricultural markets pronounced that hog production capacity had staged a steady recovery during the third quarter of 2020. Officials praised the smooth operation ...

China is producing and consuming more meat, eggs and milk than anyone thought possible in the early 20th century, but the industry has festering problems that intermittently blow up: babies poisoned by chemical-laced milk, avian influenza outbreaks, dead pigs floating in rivers, black streams and green lakes, and a year-long bout of sky-high meat prices after African swine fever decimated the pig herd last year. On September 27, China's State Council released an " Opinion on Promoting Quality Development of the Livestock Industry " to ensure supplies of animal protein while addressing the industry's rising costs, growing reliance on imports, rampant disease, environmental degradation, and food safety threats. The document outlines multiple goals for the nation's livestock industry: filling the citizenry's "market basket" for food, promoting income growth for farmers and herdsmen, and contributing to rural industrialization. The document claims output...

Chinese officials admitted that thousands of people were infected with brucellosis last year after bacteria escaped from a vaccine factory in the Gansu Province's Lanzhou City, but the official story still has some loose ends that raise questions. News media such as CNN are reporting the story spun by official Chinese news media : that the Lanzhou Health Commission confirmed 3,245 people contracted brucellosis and an additional 1,401 have tested positive. The infections were attributed to bacteria that drifted from a vaccine factory's exhaust to a nearby veterinary research institute. The factory was blamed for using disinfectant that was past its use-by date. Some infections occurred more than a year ago--in July-August 2019--but the crisis peaked and was first publicized in December 2019.  Brucellosis is a bacterial disease that primarily affects livestock. It is not known to be transmissible from human to human. Brucellosis can have debilitating effects on humans if not tre...

The Agricultural Trade Promotion Center of China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that China's agricultural imports for January-July 2020 totaled $96.2 billion, up 13 percent from the same period a year earlier. The increase came despite an economic slowdown and logistics disruptions during this year's covid-19 pandemic. China's agricultural exports totaled $41.9 billion, down 3.3 percent from a year earlier. The Center did not report trade numbers for individual trading partners. Livestock products were the largest component of agricultural imports reported by the Center. The $28.3-billion livestock total exceeded the $23.8-billion value of oilseed imports for the first time. The 42.2-percent increase in livestock import value was stimulated by the country's huge meat supply deficit after last year's African swine fever epidemic decimated China's swine herd. China has a net trade surplus for vegetables and aquatic products, but imports ...

If you're thinking about starting a socialist country, you might want to take note: after 70 years of socialism, China's elite Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has pronounced that,  "the rural collective economy is still at a low level of development [italics added], its development is uneven, and it lacks sustainability and profitability." The comments were made at a Beijing forum on CASS's Rural Development Report in preparation for writing the 14th five-year plan for 2021-25.  The report's unusually candid assessment identified rural problems and "contradictions" that include weak farming incentives, difficulty achieving sustainable income growth, growing divisions within villages, and an aging population. CASS noted that a 135-million-metric-ton shortfall in grain supplies is projected for 2025, rural industry is unprofitable, business financing is inadequate, rural services are lacking, a rural garbage disposal problem is mounting, a...