Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Tariffs on U.S. imports are impacting prices for certain types of meat and animal feed. Reports posted on China's Feed Industry Information net note that supplies of soybeans and soybean meal are tight . The latest customs data show soybean imports for March 2025 were only 3.5 million metric tons (down 7.9 percent from a year earlier), said to be the lowest monthly volume in years. Buyers have already cut back sharply on purchases of U.S. soybeans while deliveries of Brazilian soybeans have been delayed by slow Chinese customs inspections. Soybean crush volume fell to 980,000 metric tons last week. The decline in soybeans processed constricts the supply of soybean meal available for use in animal feed. Soybean meal prices in northern China are reported on April 14 to be in the range of RMB 3,680-to-3,730 per metric ton, up RMB 200-to-230. The price in Guangdong previously quoted at RMB 3000-to-3040 per metric ton also rose RMB 200 as many northern buyers made purchases in Guangdong...

China's leaders are probably furious that they are targets of U.S. tariffs because they view themselves as the proponents of a new improved version of globalization in the 21st century. The deep divide on China's role in global trade is one of the big challenges to resolving the current trade war. At a meeting on agricultural trade policy in Beijing last November a Chinese agricultural official recited China's support for globalization, its practice of free trade, its adherence to WTO rules, and China's role as a driving force for global agricultural development and trade. The official went on to proclaim that China is ready to address "severe challenges" to global agriculture and food security by improving resilience of global supply chains on the basis of food security, constructing a more sustainable, resilient, fair and inclusive global agricultural trade system, and by strengthening dialogue and consultation to stimulate new momentum in agricultural trad...

Chinese news media say the country is confident it can cope with reduced supplies of U.S. farm goods as China raises tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. China's trade war tariffs on U.S. products are approaching 100% after China announced an 84% tariff on U.S. goods today to counter President Trump's announcement of 125% tariffs on Chinese goods.  China's "party line" is that U.S. farmers will be hurt more than China by the tariff war because China has diversified its import sources, increased domestic production, and reduced use of soybean meal in animal feed. Weak consumer demand in China and deflationary pressures also reduce China's vulnerability to tariffs on farm product imports...at the same time these factors pose the gravest threat to China's economy sliding over the edge if its exporters of consumer and industrial products lose U.S. markets in the trade war. An April 9 article, " China strengthened self-sufficiency in agricultural product...

  China's Peoples Daily warned that a trade war could destroy the foundation of China-U.S. agricultural cooperation. An April 2 opinion piece praised the mutual complementarities in agricultural trade between the two countries, pointing out that U.S. agricultural products fulfill demands in the China market while also driving industry development and farm income growth in the United States.  The article blames the U.S. for impacts on U.S. farmers expected to result from China's imposition of  tariffs that specifically target U.S. agricultural products in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. On its face, the article seems to be aimed at the Trump administration, but it seems unlikely that Trump administration officials will read a Chinese language article in a publication whose readership is primarily communist party officials. Chinese officials have already decided to impose tariffs aimed at farm products, so who is this article trying to convince?  T...

China's official list of U.S. agricultural products subject to 10-percent additional tariffs announced March 4, 2025 is much broader than reported in yesterday's post on this blog. The list of products targeted for 15-percent tariffs is unchanged. Tariffs will go into effect March 10, 2025, according to the announcement. The 10-percent tariff product list includes 711 tariff lines that cover most major U.S. agricultural exports to China. In addition to the soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, and offal reported yesterday, additional 10-percent tariffs will be applied to fish and seafood (fresh, frozen, and processed products), most dairy products, vegetables, fruit, nuts, potato flour, fish oil, and processed nuts, fruits and vegetables. The 10-percent tariff list does not include whey, alfalfa, peanuts, vegetable oils, grass seed, vegetable seeds, live plants and flowers, live animals, turkey, guinea hens, lamb, ginseng, honey, pet food, distillers grains, fish meal, or leaf tobac...

(see  update of 10-percent tariff list ) China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products today that will be added to imports of products that accounted for about $19.5 billion of Chinese imports of farm goods from the United States last year. Based on calendar-year 2024 import data from China's Customs Administration web site, 15-percemt tariffs will be added to $3.43 billion worth of U.S. agricultural imports and 10-percent tariffs will be added to $16.06 billion of U.S. agricultural imports. Among the $3.4 billion in U.S. products targeted for  15-percent tariffs , cotton, corn, wheat and chicken accounted for most of the imports from the United States last year. According to China's Customs Administration, calendar year imports from the United States were as follows: Cotton imports from the United States totaled $1.85 billion, comprising 35% of China's cotton imports last year.  Wheat imports from the U.S. totaled $600 million, 17% of the total. Cor...