Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's July 2026 soybean imports totaled 11.48 million metric tons (mmt), down modestly from 11.66 mmt a year earlier. So far China has imported 61.63 mmt for the calendar year, slightly ahead of 61.05 mmt a year ago.  China customs data. Brazil was the top supplier of China's July soybean imports, with 9.78 mmt. That was down from 10.39 mmt in July last year. Imports from the United States totaled 1.11 mmt, up from 421,000 mt a year ago. USDA export sales data indicate China has bought about 12.5 mmt of U.S. soybeans in 2025--surpassing the amount promised at the Busan South Korea summit. From January to June 10.4 mmt of U.S. soybeans have arrived in China--that suggests there are still about 2 mmt of U.S. soybeans purchased by China this year that have yet to clear customs in China. Argentina returned as a supplier in July with 485,752 mt arriving in China. Other sources of China's July soybean imports included Uruguay (198,000 mt), Canada (52,000 mt), Ukraine (6,288 mt)...

"Poultry farming is no longer about merely raising chickens, but about operating a modern, equipment- and technology-intensive factory." This quote from a MySteel commentary on the expansion of egg-laying capacity  earlier this month is the leading edge of a factory-style (工厂化) overhaul of farming underway at China's grass roots as part of Xi Jinping's "high-quality development" push. The rapid expansion of production capacity in a saturated egg market drives down prices, so sustainability relies on pushing small scale producers out of the market. Much of the expansion is in regions that lack feed resources, perpetuating China's reliance on imported feed grains and soybeans. Between 2023 and 2026 at least 123 new laying hen projects representing 260 million birds were signed, initiated or brought online in China. The expansion peaked with 73 new projects launched in 2024. A crash in egg prices during 2025 did not stop the expansion, as 12 new projects we...

Chinese wheat prices have been falling since the harvest began in May. In Henan Province 262 districts have launched procurement at minimum prices to stop the slide in market prices. The support price program has also been launched in Anhui Province (91 districts), Hebei (46 districts), Jiangsu (14 districts), and Shandong (4 districts), with 6 million metric tons procured. Last year 16.4 mmt of wheat was procured at minimum prices.  China Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves. Flour prices have also been declining since June, suggesting weak downstream demand. Wholesale prices from China Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves. Chinese corn prices have also been falling since May, in part because declining wheat prices have prompted feed mills to substitute wheat for corn. Availability of other substitutes and idling of some corn processing plants due to weak downstream demand also had a depressive effect on corn prices. Some corn market commentators speculate that ...

China has announced  antidumping duties of 54.3% on U.S. pecans following an  investigation by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that claimed the nuts were sold below their production cost. The duty on Mexican pecans is 51.68%. The investigation was launched last year during the depths of the U.S.-China trade war. Duties took effect today August 11, 2026--about 6 weeks ahead of Xi Jinping's expected visit to Washington next month. It's hard to discern the necessity of the duties to protect China's pecan industry. In a classic import substitution strategy, Chinese leaders created an industry from nothing by transplanting an essentially American crop as a substitute for imported U.S. pecans that are popular with Chinese consumers. Imports already collapsed last year, undermining the claim of "harm" to the Chinese industry. The antidumping investigation claimed that surging imports of pecans from the U.S. and Mexico harmed the Chinese industry. Chinese customs data s...

China rarely acknowledges that droughts or floods impact farm production, but this week's announcements of disaster relief acknowledge that impacts of this year's extreme weather on agricultural output are a serious concern. An unusual report of payouts on agricultural insurance policies meant to reassure farmers further reveals the degree of concern. At the same time, State news media are assuring the public that China will have another bumper harvest this Fall. Three different disaster relief figures have been announced by State media. On August 3, one news item announced  RMB 215.4 billion (about $31.8 billion) had been allocated for agricultural disaster mitigation. Also on August 3,  China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that the country's top leadership had allocated RMB 176.3 billion ($26 billion) in funds for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation as well as water conservancy-related disaster relief funds. A third report on August...

China crushed 47.8 million metric tons of imported soybeans during the first 6 months of 2026, up 6.4% from the same period last year. The year-over-year growth in crush outpaced the 1.5% growth in China's imports of soybeans which totaled 50.15 mmt for H1 2026.  China Customs; MySteel; China Feed Industry Association. The rapid growth in crush also outpaced 3.9% year-over-year growth in industrial feed output during H1 2026. Official data showed that China's meat output was up 4.3% year-over-year during H1 2026, including 3.3% growth in pork and 9.4% growth in poultry meat. Growth in crush was bolstered by addition of new capacity and ample raw material supplies reflecting shipments from Brazil's record-breaking crop this year. Crushers are processing the Brazilian beans as soon as they arrive because their high moisture content makes them difficult to store.  Ten of China's 14 regions posted growth in crushing volume, including double-digit growth in inland provinces...

China is causing consternation and puzzlement by detecting and rejecting genetically modified material in food shipments from trading partners from trading partners who claim that they don't grow GM crops.  Chinese inspectors have rejected 146 shipments for containing GM material in the first half of 2026, up from a trickle in earlier years. More interesting is that Chinese inspectors have found GMOs in shipments of rapeseed oil, rice, flour, and soybean foods  Compiled from China Administration of Customs. Earlier this year, this blog reported  that Chinese inspectors had reported 74 GMO-containing shipments of rapeseed oil from Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus--countries that banned GMO crop production. At least one Kazakh exporter protested that it had verified that there was no GMO material in exports destined for China.    Despite having suspended several Kazakh and 8 Russian rapeseed oil exporters, China rejected another 27 rapeseed oil shipmen...

China's COFCO was the top-ranked grain trading company in the latest Fortune Global 500. COFCO ranked 157 with revenue of $81.95 billion. Its ranking was lower than last year's 133. COFCO was still ahead of Archer Daniels Midland (ranked 167), Wilmar (195), Bunge (196), Louis Dreyfus (287), Olam (302), and CHS (468). The rankings of grain trading companies were pulled from Fortune's list and compiled by China Oil Guidance Net . Cargill is the largest grain trading company but it is not in the Fortune 500 ranking because it is a privately held company; Cargill's revenue for its 2025 fiscal year was $154 billion.  Two Chinese companies were ranked in the top 10: State Grid (3) and China National Petroleum (10). Over the years, Chinese government and industry officials have been obsessed with expanding COFCO to compete with so-called ABCDs (ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus). COFCO grew by absorbing Chinese companies like Chinatex and Mengniu Dairy as well as foreign...

China's propaganda authorities revealed that data on rice production and other activities is severely inflated by local leaders who are under pressure to create the illusion of prosperity and growth whether it exists or not. Officials in Beijing fault their underlings for failing to "seek truth from facts," but it is Beijing's "food security" measures that are based on "facts" from the last century. China actually produces too much rice, so there is no need to pile unrealistic rice-planting quotas on village leaders and farmers.  A July 14 Central China TV broadcast reported shocking discrepancies between reported rice cultivation and actual figures  in Jianghua County of Hunan Province. While fields along the highway were planted in rice as dictated by quotas handed out to each town and village, a drone flight revealed that fields hidden behind hills were actually planted in cash crops. After checking the ledgers, the reporter found that a village...

China is having terrible floods all over the country. Where are its emergency food reserves? I searched online for news or photos of food distribution in flood areas and found nothing.  On July 19, the director of China's Food and Strategic Commodity Reserves Administration went to Shanghai --hit by serious flooding this week--to inspect emergency reserves. He is shown in a warehouse accompanied by 10 people who are all contemplating a folding emergency table about 2 feet tall for use in disaster areas. No food or other items are visible in the warehouse. Wooden structures in the background are hidden behind a black curtain.  The director issued orders about building up reserves to prepare for disasters, locating them strategically, and replenishing them, but he said nothing about distributing food supplies to areas devastated by floods this month--including Shanghai. Are the food reserves a myth? Are the warehouses flooded? Canned food for emergency use is for sale on the Tao...

China imported 13.55 million metric tons of soybeans in June 2026. It was the second-largest monthly total ever, reflecting the peak shipping month for Brazilian soybeans two months earlier and the arrival of beans that had been delayed by stringent inspections earlier in the year. Imports of U.S. soybeans during June reflect the arrival of beans purchased in fulfillment of China's purchase commitment made at last October's summit. China paid a $20-per-ton premium for U.S. soybeans versus Brazilian beans during June. China customs data. Imports from Brazil totaled 12.08 mmt during June and imports from the U.S. totaled 1.27 mmt, while Canada supplied 33,604 metric tons, Russia supplied 63,734 metric tons, Ukraine supplied 5,357 metric tons, and smaller quantities came from Benin and Ethiopia.  China has imported a cumulative 34.75 mmt of soybeans from Brazil in the first 6 months of 2026, up from 31.86 mmt a year earlier. Cumulative imports from the U.S. are 9.31 mmt versus 16....

China's creation of "high standard farmland" is harder than expected. Users of the land don't have money for improvements and couldn't reap a return on investments if they did. Responsibility for improving and maintaining land falls to an army of bureaucrats who have their own set of interests.  Last week China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) launched a campaign to  root out abuses and dysfunction in the high standard farmland construction program . At a meeting last week officials were ordered to "take decisive action to "address and rectify prominent issues" and "squarely face existing problems" with the massive farmland construction program that is endorsed by Xi Jinping and viewed as essential to national food security.  The first in a series of plans for building high standard farmland was issued in 2013 by China's State Council. The program funds construction projects to level fields, consolidate fragmented...

China's hog price has dipped below its chicken price--an unusual phenomenon that indicates the seriousness of China's pork glut in 2026. The industry is producing more pigs than the market can absorb, and in doing so it is consuming vast amounts of feed grain and soybean meal. China's poultry industry is expanding rapidly, but the extra poultry supplies are substituting for imports and pouring into the export market.  Over the past 2 decades Chinese pork prices rose and fell in a familiar cyclical pattern. During downturns, pork prices approached chicken prices briefly every 3 years or so before turning back upward. Since 2021, though, gyrations in pork prices have become more pronounced and parity between pork and chicken prices has become more frequent. The latest 2-year slide in pork prices has resulted in the pork price being less than the chicken price for four months and counting in 2026. The price of live hogs was stuck at about RMB 10 per kg from April to June--clos...