Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Brazil's exports of soybeans to China were 9.97 million metric tons during March 2026, while 4.5 mmt were exported to other destinations. Other top destinations included Spain (511,000 mt), Netherlands (427,000 mt), Turkey (487,000 mt), Mexico (416,000 mt), and Thailand (398,000 mt).  Analysis of data from Brazil COMEX Stat database.   Brazil is harvesting a record-large soybean crop, so exports are expected to be ahead of last year's pace. Exports were up slightly year-over-year in January & February, but during March 2026 exports to China were down 1.1 mmt from last year's March total. Meanwhile, exports to other destinations were up 1 mmt y-o-y.  The drop in exports to China is consistent with reports of a slowdown in shipments due to stricter inspections by Brazilian authorities . The inspections were prompted by complaints about weed seeds, pesticide-coated seeds, and heat damage received from Chinese customs officials. It was reported in March that one major tr...

One of China's top 2 soybean crushers reported a rebound in profits during 2025 despite the trade war that choked off imports of U.S. soybeans for most of the year. However, the profit report belies a gloomy outlook for China's crushing industry as it awaits another deluge of Brazilian soybeans this Spring. Arawana Holdings Co. Ltd. (known in China as Yihai Kerry) reported a 26% increase in profits in a preliminary report of its 2025 financial performance . Arawana cited improved soybean crushing margins due to strong downstream demand for its soybean meal products and reduced soybean costs during the first 3 quarters of 2025. The report said strong demand for soybean meal was driven by its high cost-effectiveness in feed formulations (thus undermining agricultural officials' plans to eliminate soybean meal from feed formulations). Margins were also aided by ample South American supplies that drove down soybean prices and lowered raw material costs. The report said procurem...

Recent announcements seem to point to China becoming a soybean meal importer. Large-scale Chinese imports of soybean meal would be a change from its historical practice of importing soybeans to be processed in one of China's dozens of processing plants with annual capacity of over 150 million metric tons.  On July 7,  Reuters reported that a 30,000-metric-ton soybean meal shipment will leave Argentine for China this month, the first major shipment since China approved Argentina as a soybean meal supplier in 2019. The shipment had been booked in late June by a group of Chinese feed millers.  On July 3, Chinese customs officials approved Ethiopia as a soybean meal supplier to China. On June 6, Chinese customs officials approved Uruguay as a supplier of soybean meal and rapeseed meal . Argentine officials were effusive over this month's shipment and were optimistic that this would be followed by more.  At least one industry analyst  interpreted the Argentine ship...

Chinese officials have been pushing feed mills and livestock farmers to reduce their use of soybean meal in animal feed for more than 5 years. They like to point to percentages of soybean meal and corn in manufactured feed reported by the quasi-government China Feed Industry Association (CFIA) as evidence of progress on this campaign. However, these percentages have no correspondence to soybean imports and are essentially meaningless.  CFIA has included the percentages of soybean meal and corn in animal feed in its reports of monthly feed production since 2021. CFIA occasionally skips a month, never issues a December report, and occasionally omits the percentages. Agricultural officials occasionally cherry-pick percentages from these reports to demonstrate the success of their programs to cut soybean meal use. The percentage of soybean meal compiled from monthly CFIA reports from 2022 to 2025 in the chart below shows no obvious trend in the percentage. High values of 15.6...

Today, China's agriculture ministry told market participants not to worry about 20-to-30-percent increases in soybean meal prices discussed on this blog last week . A lengthy article on the ministry's market information website cited similar increases in soybean meal prices during April, but assured readers that prices will ease after the May 1 Labor Day holiday. The ag ministry did not mention lengthy inspections delaying customs clearance of soybeans that was the focus of feed industry articles cited by this blog last week.  The ministry's article attributed the soybean meal price spike and widespread idling of processing plants to weather problems in Brazil that delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans. Lack of Brazilian soybeans disrupted the Chinese market's seasonal switchover from North American to South American supplies that normally happens in April. According to the ministry, soybean crushers' capacity utilization was only 30 percent in the first 2 weeks of...

Chinese soybean meal prices are spiraling upward as customs inspectors closely scrutinize every shipment of imported soybeans. Soaring prices for the important source of protein crimp the operations of animal feed manufacturers and livestock producers in China. China's Feed Industry Information Net reports that the inspection time for soybean cargo ships has grown from the customary 5 days to more than 20 days. Inspections are taking 30 days or more at major ports Tianjin, Qingdao, and Rizhao where ships are lined up waiting to unload cargos. Delays in unloading ships has shrunk the available supply of soybeans for Chinese crushers, in turn reducing the volume of soybean meal available to meet demands from feed mills and livestock producers.  According to the report, tighter inspections were initially spurred by customs inspectors' discoveries of chemical contaminants and pests in shipments of soybeans arriving from Brazil last June. Last year China suspended shipments from 5 ...

Tariffs on U.S. imports are impacting prices for certain types of meat and animal feed. Reports posted on China's Feed Industry Information net note that supplies of soybeans and soybean meal are tight . The latest customs data show soybean imports for March 2025 were only 3.5 million metric tons (down 7.9 percent from a year earlier), said to be the lowest monthly volume in years. Buyers have already cut back sharply on purchases of U.S. soybeans while deliveries of Brazilian soybeans have been delayed by slow Chinese customs inspections. Soybean crush volume fell to 980,000 metric tons last week. The decline in soybeans processed constricts the supply of soybean meal available for use in animal feed. Soybean meal prices in northern China are reported on April 14 to be in the range of RMB 3,680-to-3,730 per metric ton, up RMB 200-to-230. The price in Guangdong previously quoted at RMB 3000-to-3040 per metric ton also rose RMB 200 as many northern buyers made purchases in Guangdong...