China has announced antidumping duties of 54.3% on U.S. pecans following an investigation by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that claimed the nuts were sold below their production cost. The duty on Mexican pecans is 51.68%. The investigation was launched last year during the depths of the U.S.-China trade war. Duties took effect today August 11, 2026--about 6 weeks ahead of Xi Jinping's expected visit to Washington next month. It's hard to discern the necessity of the duties to protect China's pecan industry. In a classic import substitution strategy, Chinese leaders created an industry from nothing by transplanting an essentially American crop as a substitute for imported U.S. pecans that are popular with Chinese consumers. Imports already collapsed last year, undermining the claim of "harm" to the Chinese industry.
The antidumping investigation claimed that surging imports of pecans from the U.S. and Mexico harmed the Chinese industry. Chinese customs data show imports from the two countries peaked at about 36,605 metric tons and $161.78 million in 2024--the antidumping investigation period. However, imports from the two countries plunged to 7,590 metric tons in 2025 and fell further in the first half of 2026 to less than 2,000 metric tons before the antidumping duties were even announced.
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| From China Customs Data. |
The U.S. duty was set by first calculating a theoretical sales price. Shipping costs were deducted from the 2024 average value of U.S. pecans reported by Chinese customs data to guess at the ex-factory price. The 54.3% "dumping" margin is the difference between this theoretical ex-factory price and pecan production cost estimates issued by the University of Georgia.
The antidumping duties amount to protection for a Chinese pecan industry created from nothing by government planners. Pecans are native to the southern U.S. and northern Mexico, and China did not even have a pecan industry until pecans were introduced from the U.S. Over the past 15 years or so, government planning and subsidies have propelled rapid growth in Chinese pecan production, processing, promotion and marketing. The antidumping investigation itself showed that China's own pecan industry grew at a blistering pace during years it was supposedly being harmed by imports: Chinese plantation area grew 13% annually during 2023 and 2024, and sales grew more than 20% annually. The market share of imports was steady at 28-to-30%, according to the investigation.
Chinese news media outlets have frequently praised the creation of the country's largest pecan industrial cluster in Jiangsu Province's Sihong County as a model rural development project. The descriptions mirror other forestry-based industrial development initiatives. Last month, Quanjiao County in Anhui Province held a media activity featuring a similar story about its pecan industry (actually larger than Sihong County's).
The Sihong County project began with a 500-mu pilot plantation in 2006. The county now has six plantation bases of 2,000 mu or larger, covering 65,000 mu (over 10,000 acres), with 47,000 mu of nut-bearing trees. The county accounts for about 10% of China's production. Like many tree nut projects launched over the past two decades, the Sihong County project is pitched as forest-based industry development, a rural revitalization project, and as a poverty alleviation initiative. It features government coordination and subsidies for pecan plantations on large tracts of land rented from village collectives, provision of subsidized saplings, creation of a pecan research institute, construction of industrial parks hosting pecan processors, participation in trade shows, awards from government-controlled industry associations. Subsidies for trees are 400-to-500 yuan per mu, and the National and Provincial finance departments are cited as propelling the industry. Last year Jiangsu Province spent 130 million yuan on a forest industry subsidy program that featured funds for a company to buy pecan saplings. The Sihong pecans were designated as a "geographic-indicated" local specialty--even though 3 of the 4 varieties grown there have distinctly American names: Pawnee, Mahan, and Wichita.
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| In China's Sihong County pecan saplings are placed in pots covering dozens of acres to create a massive plantation. Source: International Poverty Reduction Center in China. |
The antidumping investigation featured data from 2022-24, but USDA data show that the United States has been exporting pecans to China since 2006. (That happened to be the year the Chinese Sihong County pecan industrial base was launched.) U.S. exports of in-shell pecans to China grew from less than 200 metric tons annually during 2005-15 to over 13,000 mt during 2020-21 (during the Phase One agreement) and peaked in 2023 at 21,800 metric tons. The USDA data are not consistent with Chinese customs data used in the Commerce Ministry investigation which showed a peak in U.S. imports during 2024. The plunge in exports during 2025 is consistent with the sharp decline shown in the Chinese import data.
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| USDA Global Agricultural Trade System. |
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