Chinese propagandists appear to have given up on soybean self-sufficiency now that China has gained the upper hand over the U.S. on the soybean trade war front. The barrage of Chinese articles about finding soymeal substitutes, low protein animal diets, corn-soy intercropping, etc. has quietly faded from Chinese media. China's plan to bolster soybean self-sufficiency actually failed, but Brazil's bottomless soybean supplies nevertheless enabled China to snub U.S. soybean producers during last year's trade war. Xi Jinping now is free to make offers of soybean purchases to President Trump in trade negotiations without appearing to do so from a weak position. Mission accomplished, but not in the way Chinese strategists planned.
Back in 2019--at the height of the first U.S.-China trade war--China's "Number 1 Document" announced a "soybean revitalization plan" to increase self-sufficiency in soybeans. Soybeans were pronounced to have strategic significance and were included in several important documents. Xi Jinping endorsed the plan. When the program was announced, China had just harvested 16 million metric tons of soybeans in the Fall of 2018 and imported 88 million metric tons of soybeans during calendar year 2018. Those numbers imply nearly 85% of China's soybean supply was imported and a self-sufficiency rate of 15.4%.
In 2025, China produced 20.9 million tons of soybeans, and China imported 108 million metric tons of soybeans. Thus, between 2018 and 2025 China increased its soybean output by 4.9 million metric tons, but its imports increased by 20 million tons. Those numbers imply 84% of China's soybean supply was imported in 2025, marginally less than the percentage in 2018. Quick calculations suggest there has been no secular increase in self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency peaked at 18% in 2022 and has fallen 2 percentage points since then. It seems unlikely that self-sufficiency will ever reach even 20%.
Chinese leaders are not too concerned about the increase in soybean imports, because the increase came from Brazil, not the United States. Brazil supplied China with 82 million tons of soybeans during 2025, enabling China to shut down imports of U.S. soybeans most of the year and create angst among U.S. farmers.
The Chinese soybean revitalization plan's measures failed to reduce soybean consumption. In 2025 China imported and consumed a record volume of soybeans. The plan also failed to increase soybean production. China's soy output did increase during 2018-20, but that was mainly due to low corn prices during those years that incentivized a return to soy planting. Soy output plateaued at just above 20 million metric tons during 2022-25. Nor did China find substitute protein meals or new suppliers of soybean imports as envisioned in the 2019 plan. China simply increased its reliance on Brazilian soybeans.
Chinese officials now seem less concerned with raising soybean self-sufficiency. At a January press conference celebrating last year's rural policy achievements, a vice minister of agriculture praised last Fall's 20.9-million-ton soybean harvest as the fourth year in a row with production exceeding 20 million metric tons. He celebrated this as success in "consolidating the increases in soybean and oilseed production," the objective included in the 2025 and 2026 "Number 1 Documents" on rural policy. The real objective of the soybean revitalization was to prevent Chinese soybean production from vanishing, not to actually become self-sufficient. They now implicitly acknowledge that striving for further increases in soybean self-sufficiency is unrealistic.
This week, a Chinese academic told the Chinese public not to be concerned that China imports over 100 million metric tons of soybeans because the beans are needed to supply soybean meal for China's growing demand for animal feed. He went on to reveal that China's farmers can't even sell the 20-million-tons of domestic soybeans they produce. The Chinese scholar explained that China's soybeans are distinct from imported soybeans because they have a high protein content suitable for food products like tofu and soy milk. The Chinese academic explained that the market demand for food-grade soybeans in China has been steady at about 16 million metric tons, about 4 million metric tons less than the amount produced.
(The government buys up the surplus Chinese soybeans to store in government reserves in order to prevent the price from falling. Keeping prices of domestic soybeans high, in turn, perpetuates the reliance on cheaper imported soybeans in the crushing sector.)
Chinese leaders have a long history of going back and forth between rhetoric about soybean import angst and acceptance of the economic reality of importing them. As this blog pointed out in 2019, Chinese officials have rolled out initiatives and plans to revive the soybean industry for decades, and now most have been memory-holed. Many of the plans targeted increases in high-oil content soybeans with breeding programs, demonstration farms, and targeted subsidies. During 2010-15, subsidies and plans couldn't stop the decline in soy production when Chinese farmers were planting their land in corn to take advantage of high prices. Recovery of soybean output from 2016-19 was due to a collapse in corn prices. Soy production dipped in 2021 following a new spike in corn prices.
Xi Jinping is probably happy at the moment that he can promise soybean purchases as a bargaining chip in negotiations with President Trump without appearing weak, but no one else is really happy in the soybean industry.
Chinese officials are assuring their farmers they are doing all they can to ensure farmers get good prices, and they doled out direct payments to Chinese soy producers equivalent to about USD 300-to-400 per acre last year to keep soy production above 20 million tons. China spends about USD 3 billion annually on soybean subsidy payments, according to its submissions to the WTO.
There are traces of dissent in China's soybean processing industry. An article last week about financial losses incurred by a State-owned Beijing food company complained that the reliance on South American soybeans increased its cost of producing soybean oil and the quality of the soybeans was unsatisfactory. The article also blamed lengthy customs inspection times for rising costs. This blog previously reported on Chinese allegations of Brazilian price gouging on soybeans.
The U.S. Government is giving its farmers $12 billion in "Bridge Payments", promising to use more soybeans in biodiesel, and there is talk of a farm crisis.
Meanwhile, there are grumblings from Brazil about soybean prices that don't cover production costs, and a report of growing financial pressure on Brazilian entities in the soybean sector.
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