Saturday, March 15, 2025

Divergence in U.S. & Chinese egg prices

High egg prices are a hot topic in the United States. China, in contrast, has a glut of eggs and depressed prices. 

The March 14, 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service weekly eggs market overview reported that U.S. egg prices continued declining during the second week of March as the supply situation improved. No significant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have occurred in March and U.S. egg demand is relatively light. The average U.S. wholesale price for Grade A large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen, down sharply from their February peak. 

Until 2021, Chinese and U.S. wholesale egg prices had been roughly equal at about $1-to-$2 per dozen with no trend. U.S. prices fluctuated more than Chinese prices, so the U.S. price was sometimes higher, sometimes lower than the Chinese price after converting them to dollars per dozen. 

Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen.
Sources: USDA and China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 

Since 2022 HPAI outbreaks and hen culls have caused spikes in U.S. egg prices and divergence between U.S. and Chinese egg prices. China's weaker regulatory requirements and preponderance of small-scale farms with low capital requirements are probably the reasons for China's elastic egg supply and continued lower degree of fluctuation in China's egg prices. Declines in feed prices during 2023 and 2024 also contributed to lower Chinese egg prices.

U.S. egg prices dropped in 2023 as the industry recovered from its 2022 HPAI outbreak. U.S. and Chinese egg prices were briefly at parity again in May 2023 at about $1 per dozen. 

Then the latest HPAI outbreak caused the U.S. egg price to spike again in 2024, eventually reaching the February 2025 peak of $7.82 per dozen. 

Chinese egg prices were in decline during the U.S. egg price spike. After hitting a modest peak of $1.17 per dozen in November 2022, Chinese egg prices went through modest peaks and valleys but were generally in the doldrums. The average wholesale egg price announced by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs for the first week of March 2025 was equal to about $0.85 per dozen, down more than 30 cents from November 2022. 

Egg prices are even lower in major production areas of northern China. According to www.beijingprice.cn the average wholesale price in Beijing on March 15 is $0.54 per dozen, while the average price in wet markets was $0.73, and the supermarket price was $0.83.

Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market reported a 25-to-30-percent drop in egg prices in early February when sales resumed after the lunar new year holiday. Prices rebounded slightly when school cafeterias reopened later in February, but a report from the market said prices are still relatively low. The report attributed weak prices to an influx of million-hen egg farms in nearby Hebei Province. Despite declining feed prices recently lowering the floor under egg prices, analysts said current prices are below breakeven for Chinese egg producers.

Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen.
Source: www.xinfadi.com.cn price quotations

The Chinese market's ability to absorb supplies will become even weaker as the weather warms in the spring and refrigeration becomes necessary to preserve eggs, so analysts see continued weak egg prices on the horizon in the Beijing market. 

Don't get any ideas about exporting Chinese eggs to the United States to take advantage of the spread between U.S. and Chinese prices. Chinese eggs are not approved for import to the United States since China has its own disease problems, and its food safety standards cannot meet U.S. requirements. According to China's customs data, nearly all of China's exports of fresh eggs during 2024 (just under 140,000 metric tons) went to Hong Kong and Macao with small amounts going to Myanmar and Tuvalu. None were exported to the United States. China does not import fresh eggs.



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