China's Ministry of Agriculture's (MOA)
November China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its estimate of the country's 2016/17 corn crop by 1.15 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a higher yield compared with October's estimate. They attribute the higher yield to a frost that came 5-10 days later than usual in northeastern provinces. Imports for 2016/17 were reduced to 1 mmt this month as MOA determined that the drop in Chinese corn prices had rendered imported corn uncompetitive. Industrial use was increased by 500,000 metric tons due to subsidies for corn processors in northeastern provinces. Loss was increased by 200,000 metric tons as a result of rain and snow in the northeast that degraded quality of some corn.
China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016) |
Item |
Unit |
2015/16 |
2016/17 Nov. |
Change from Oct |
Planted area |
1000 ha |
38,117 |
36,026 |
|
Harvested area |
1000 ha |
38,117 |
35,990 |
|
Yield |
Kg/ha |
5892 |
5935 |
+32 |
Production |
MMT |
224.58 |
213.6 |
+1.15 |
Imports |
MMT |
3.2 |
1.0 |
-0.8 |
Consumption |
MMT |
194.05 |
210.27 |
+0.7 |
--Food |
MMT |
7.65 |
7.72 |
|
--Feed |
MMT |
121.01 |
133.48 |
|
--Industrial use |
MMT |
54.17 |
57.45 |
+0.5 |
--Seed |
MMT |
1.66 |
1.61 |
|
Loss and other |
MMT |
9.56 |
10.01 |
+0.2 |
Exports |
MMT |
0.01 |
0.5 |
|
Surplus |
MMT |
33.72 |
3.83 |
-0.35 |
The MOA has whittled down its estimate of the 2016/17 corn surplus from about 10 mmt in July-August to just 3.8 mmt this month. Production and import estimates have been scaled back, and consumption has been boosted.
There were few changes in MOA's balance sheets for other major commodities. MOA's estimate of soybean imports was raised by 1.8 mmt to 85.31 mmt. That increase is slightly larger than the increase in soybean crushing estimated for 2016/17. MOA explains that increased swine inventories will spur the larger crush due to increased demand for protein meal. However, MOA says slower 2.5-percent growth in soybean imports is due to stricter environmental protection which is causing swine numbers to decline in some southern provinces.
China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016) |
Item |
Unit |
2015/16 |
2016/17 Nov. |
Change from Oct |
Planted area |
1000 ha |
6,590 |
7156 |
|
Harvested area |
1000 ha |
6,590 |
7150 |
|
Yield |
Kg/ha |
1,762 |
1748 |
|
Production |
MMT |
11.61 |
12.5 |
|
Imports |
MMT |
81.42 |
85.31 |
+1.81 |
Consumption |
MMT |
94.76 |
99.72 |
+1.52 |
--Crushing |
MMT |
81.00 |
85.50 |
+1.50 |
--Food |
MMT |
10.35 |
11.18 |
|
--Seed |
MMT |
0.54 |
0.56 |
|
Loss and other |
MMT |
2.87 |
2.48 |
+0.02 |
Exports |
MMT |
0.11 |
0.20 |
|
Surplus |
MMT |
-1.84 |
-2.11 |
+0.29 | | |
There was only a slight reduction in cotton stocks in the November balance sheet compared with last month. Modest imports, declining production and nearly steady consumption will reduce cotton stocks from 11.1 mmt to 9.27 mmt over the course of 2016/17.
China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016) |
Item |
Unit |
2015/16 |
2016/17 Nov. |
Change from Oct |
Begin inventory |
MMT |
12.8 |
11.11 |
-0.02 |
Planted area |
1000 ha |
33 |
31 |
|
Yield |
Kg/ha |
1,510 |
1526 |
-18 |
Production |
MMT |
4.93 |
4.73 |
-0.05 |
Imports |
MMT |
0.96 |
0.97 |
|
Consumption |
MMT |
7.54 |
7.52 |
|
Exports |
MMT |
0.02 |
0.02 |
|
End Inventory |
MMT |
11.13 |
9.27 |
-0.08 |
China edible oils supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, November
2016) |
Item |
Unit |
2015/16 |
2016/17 Nov. |
Change from Oct |
Production |
MMT |
25.03 |
25.81 |
+0.48 |
--Soy oil |
MMT |
14.44 |
15.17 |
+0.29 |
--Rapeseed oil |
MMT |
5.63 |
5.55 |
+0.18 |
--Peanut oil |
MMT |
3.01 |
3.18 |
+0.02 |
Imports |
MMT |
5.58 |
5.5 |
+0.10 |
--Palm oil |
MMT |
3.42 |
3.2 |
|
--Rapeseed oil |
MMT |
0.74 |
0.75 |
|
--Soy oil |
MMT |
0.65 |
0.58 |
|
Consumption |
MMT |
31.17 |
31.38 |
|
--Urban |
MMT |
20.41 |
20.55 |
|
--Rural |
MMT |
10.76 |
10.83 |
|
Exports |
MMT |
0.11 |
0.13 |
|
Surplus |
MMT |
-0.66 |
-0.19 |
+0.58 |
China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016) |
Item |
Unit |
2015/16 |
2016/17 Nov. |
Change from Oct |
Planted area |
1000 ha |
1435 |
1433 |
|
--sugar cane |
1000 ha |
1301 |
1270 |
|
--sugar beets |
1000 ha |
134 |
163 |
|
Yield |
MT/ha |
54.38 |
56.25 |
+1.87 |
--sugar cane |
MT/ha |
60.75 |
60 |
|
--sugar beets |
MT/ha |
48 |
52.5 |
+3.75 |
Sugar output |
MMT |
8.7 |
9.9 |
|
--sugar cane |
MMT |
7.85 |
8.85 |
|
--sugar beets |
MMT |
0.85 |
1.05 |
|
Imports |
MMT |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
Consumption |
MMT |
15.2 |
15.1 |
|
Exports |
MMT |
0.16 |
0.07 |
|
Surplus |
MMT |
-3.16 |
-1.77 |
-1.67 |
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