China's New Purchase Commitment for U.S. Farm Products Faces Challenges

China committed to buy $17 billion of non-soybean U.S. agricultural products over the next 3 years according to a Fact Sheet released by the White House summarizing commitments made during Trumps visit to Beijing last week. These purchases are in addition to China's soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025 to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in 2025 and 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. China renewed expired approvals for 400 U.S. beef exporting facilities and agreed to resume imports of poultry from U.S. States free of highly pathogenic avian influenza. 

The recent history of U.S. agricultural exports to China shows that the $17 billion value of non-soybean exports was exceeded during 2021 and 2022, when the "Phase One" agreement was in force and high commodity prices inflated the value of farm trade (but China did not meet the Phase One targets). Non-soy ag exports have fallen short of $17 billion since 2023. Last year, during the 2025 trade war, the value of U.S. ag exports to China shrank to just $3 billion of soybeans and $5 billion of other products. It will be challenging for peak export values to be restored with lower prices dragging down value, with weak demand in China, and with competition from Brazil. 

USDA definition of "agricultural"; calendar years
Data from USDA Global Agricultural Trade System.

China's agricultural imports peaked in 2022, according to Chinese customs data. "Agricultural imports" from all sources peaked at $236.1 billion in 2022 and fell to $207.4 in 2025--based on China's definition of "agricultural." Those look like big numbers, but U.S. products are not competitive in many of categories such as milk powder, palm and rapeseed oil, tropical fruit, and processed foods. Soybeans account for about a fourth of ag imports by China's definition, but during the peak year of 2022 soybeans from the U.S. were valued at $19 billion of the $63 billion imported. Since then, China's imports of Brazilian soybeans have boomed, but the value of soybean imports shrank to $50.4 billion in 2025. Among non-soy products, beef has grown dramatically to become the clear number-two--with $23.2 billion imported last year, up from $10.3 billion in 2020. Brazil accounts for most of China's beef imports, and U.S. beef has a relatively small quota of 164,000 metric tons under China's new safeguard measure this year. The U.S. beef market is so tight that the U.S. is also importing Brazilian beef this year. China's $19.4 billion fruit & nut import value reflects predominantly tropical fruit from Southeast Asia and off-season fruit imports from Southern Hemisphere countries like Chile, Peru, and South Africa. The U.S. could sell more pistachios and almonds to China, but in the peak year of 2022 only $0.6 billion of China's $16.7 billion of fruit & nut imports came from the U.S. Dairy imports ($12.8 billion in 2025) come mainly from New Zealand and Europe. In 2022, the U.S. had a 5% share of China's dairy imports. 

Many of China's farm commodity sectors, including meat, grains and cotton, are struggling with weak demand, low prices, and financial losses. The pork sector is struggling with excess capacity and the lowest prices seen in about 15 years, so imports of $4.4 billion in 2025 were just a fraction of their 2020 peak. In 2024 the Chinese government formulated a bailout strategy for the beef and dairy sectors that were grappling with serious financial losses. A milk glut led to crashing dairy imports. Grain prices dropped dramatically in 2023 and remain relatively low after recovering somewhat in 2025. Last week Chinese media launched a propaganda campaign ahead of the wheat harvest to assure farmers that they will get good prices despite supply exceeding demand by 10 million metric tons. The implicit message was that Chinese authorities want their farmers to keep producing surpluses of wheat. A rebound in imports of corn and sorghum could be one bright spot for U.S. exporters due to the impact of unusually heavy rains during last Fall's harvest. Perhaps China will pull the plug on its domestic grain-based fuel ethanol industry and resume imports of U.S. DDGS and ethanol.

China has not officially acknowledged the new purchase commitment, and many details are unspecified. What is the definition of "agricultural"? Will the dollar value be in U.S. export value or Chinese import value? Will the timing of "purchases" be counted when they are contracted or when the goods are shipped? The 2026 target will be "prorated"--since we are no in May, does that mean $8.5 billion for June-December 2026?