China's beef imports rebounded in Q1 2026 despite a special safeguard duty mechanism that took effect January 2026. Beef prices in China are so high that beef from Brazil--the dominant supplier of imports--might still be competitive in the Chinese market even if extra safeguard duties are applied later this year.
According to China's customs administration beef imports for January-March 2026 totaled 870,000 metric tons, up 27.5% from the same period in 2025 (this appears to exclude beef offal--its inclusion would raise the total to 890,000 metric tons).
A tabulation of monthly data shows that January and February 2026 imports were about 35% higher than year-earlier imports, while March imports were up 15% year-over-year. Imports had peaked in September 2025 and dropped during Q4 2025 before rebounding this year.
 |
| China customs data, HS 0201, 0202, 020620. |
In January 2026 China announced a safeguard mechanism for 2026-28 that assesses an extra duty of 55% on beef imports from supplying countries after imports exceed a country-specific quota based on historical imports. It's surely no coincidence that the "investigation" to justify the safeguards was announced several months after China's top leadership announced a relief package for the industry in 2024. The safeguards were justified by an investigation conducted in 2025 by China's commerce ministry and China Animal Agriculture Association that reported an increase in beef imports during 2019-24. The Dim Sums blog previously showed that the data released by China to justify the safeguards hid a slowdown in growth in China's beef imports and a drop in prices during 2023-25.
Despite the introduction of the safeguard mechanism, calculations show that imports comprised nearly one-third of China's beef supply in Q1 2026, up from about one-fourth of supply last year. Quarterly beef output rose last year from 1.9 mmt in Q1 to 2.5 mmt in Q4. However, Q1 2026 output was down slightly year-over-year. The year-over-year decline in beef production contrasted with increases in previous year of 3-to-4% reported in the Chinese investigation used to justify the beef safeguards.
A January analysis by Expana Markets showed that imports from Brazil and Australia are likely to exceed their quotas and thus be subject to safeguard duties. Imports from other countries were well within their quotas last year. That analysis reported that traders were attempting to front-load imports in 2026 before the quota was reached, and market participants thought that the quota could fill by mid-year.
Brazil has the largest quota (1.1 million tons) based on its historic 41% share of imports. In 2025 Brazil accounted for more than half of China's beef imports, and in Q1 2026 Brazil's share grew to 60%. In 3 months imports from Brazil had already filled more than half of the country's quota for 2026. Imports from Australia also filled more than half of their quota. Imports from the United States plunged 31% from a year earlier. The U.S. has a very tight beef market, its beef is subject to a 10% reciprocal Chinese tariff, and Chinese authorities have neglected to renew approvals for many U.S. exporters due to trade tensions.
Chinese beef prices went through a years-long bubble that started during the meat shortage of 2019-20 after African swine fever (ASF) ripped through the country's pork farms. The Chinese safeguard investigation report dismissed the ASF event as irrelevant. Chinese beef prices dropped sharply during 2023-24 and reached their pre-ASF level in late 2024--about the same time the beef safeguard investigation was launched. Beef prices rebounded in 2025-26. If Chinese prices keep rising to achieve profitability for Chinese producers, the spread will persist or grow, maintaining demand for imports.
 |
| Wholesale prices reported by China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. |
China's demand for imported beef is driven by the spread between Chinese and international prices. During Q1 2026, the average landed value of imported frozen beef including tariffs and VAT was about RMB 20 per kg less than the domestic price of beef.
 |
| China Ministry of Ag wholesale price of boneless beef; average value of imported boneless beef (HS 020230). |
The Chinese price is already so much higher than the cost of Brazilian frozen beef, that the two prices would be near parity even if Brazil is assessed the 55% safeguard tariff. Adding the safeguard tariff to the average Q1 2026 value-per-kg of frozen Brazilian boneless beef implies a cost of Brazilian beef nearly the same as the price of Chinese beef. Argentina's price including the safeguard tariff would exceed the Chinese price by about RMB 2 per kg. Costs of bone-in frozen beef from Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand was even lower, ranging from RMB 21 to 26 per kg. Imported beef prices may still be a "ceiling" on the Chinese price that prevents the Chinese price from rising higher.
Bolivia, Colombia, Belarus, Ukraine, Chile, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, South Africa, and Russia are on a list of "developing countries" that are declared exempt from beef safeguard tariffs. Imports from these countries were small during Q1 2026, and none had significant year-over-year increases in beef imports. Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are developing countries, but all are subject to safeguard tariffs. (Curiously, the list of exempt "developing countries" includes relatively high-income regions Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Macao, but none of them supply China with beef.) Safeguard quotas were set for 3 developed countries: Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S., but the unit cost of frozen beef from those countries was much higher.
Comments