China's 2025 agricultural production data shows meat output grew 4.2%, exceeding 100 million metric tons for the first time, while grain output grew 1.2% to 714.88 mmt. Soybeans stood out with growing imports during 2025, but most of China's other agricultural imports went down. Most agricultural prices also went down, reflecting an economy that appears weaker than the 5% GDP growth reported for 2025.
Meat output growth featured 4.1% growth in pork output, 6.7% growth in poultry, and 2.8% growth in beef, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics preliminary data release for 2025. Milk production grew marginally, and production of eggs and mutton fell. This blog previously reported the Bureau's report of a record grain harvest and 7.7-percent increase in cotton output.
Trade data released by the customs administration show imports of wheat, corn and cotton plummeted during calendar year 2025. Imported soybeans rose 6.5 percent last year to 111.83 mmt, comprising 84% of China's soybean supply. Meat imports declined by 8.7% last year. Imports comprised 5.7% of China's meat supplies, including a 26% share of beef supplies which likely explains why China implemented beef safeguard tariffs last month. Imports comprise 13.9% of cotton supplies. Exports of apparel were down 5% in 2025. China's overall agricultural imports were down 3.6% to $207 billion, while its agricultural exports were up 1.2% to $104 billion.
China did not escape its pork glut despite Chinese authorities browbeating hog companies to cut back on capacity for half the year. In 2025, the number of slaughtered hogs hit a record 719.73 million (up 2.4% year over year), and pork output rose to a record 59.38 million metric tons (up 4.1% as "second fattening" boosted slaughter weights). The end-of-year inventory of swine was up 0.5% from a year ago. The swine inventory ended 2024 at 427.43 million, rose to a peak of 437 million in Q3 2025, and fell to 429.67 million at the end of 2025.
Most farm prices went down during 2025 since China's market did not grow enough to absorb the extra farm output. Hog prices fell 11.2% for the year, and Q4 2025 prices were down 23.7% year-over-year. Egg prices crashed 12%. The 1.2-percent increase in grain output was more than offset by a 2.6-percent decrease in grain prices. On the other hand, cattle prices were up 2.8% in 2025 and 14.7% year-on-year for Q4. Vegetable prices were up 5.6% in Q4 after heavy rains during the fall crimped production, causing prices of tomatoes and some other vegetables to double year-over-year in December.
The CPI was unchanged from 2024, but that hides year-over-year declines in CPI during February-September, with a slight recovery in prices at year-end. The December CPI was up 0.8% year-over-year. The food, alcohol and tobacco component of the CPI was down -0.7% for the year, but it was up 0.8% in December. The December CPI showed vegetable prices were up 18.2% year-over-year, fruit prices were up 4.4%, egg prices were down 12.7%, and pork prices were down 14.6%.
The Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew 5% in 2025, which turns out to be exactly the target Xi Jinping had previously set (wow, it must be amazing to have a national leader who can predict economic growth with such precision!). The "primary sector," which includes mainly agriculture, grew 3.9%, and its share of GDP fell to 6.7%. Fixed asset investment in agriculture grew only 2.3%, but real estate investment dropped 17.2%.
Per capita disposable income also grew exactly 5% to RMB 43,377, but retail sales grew only 3.7%. The unemployment rate was reported to be 5.1%. Per-capita consumer expenditure grew 3.7% for urban residents and 5.3% for rural residents
The population decreased 3.39 million, with 11.31 million deaths and 7.92 million births reported. The population of rural residents declined 13.69 million and the urban population increased by 10.2 million. The population is 67.89% urban.
The number of rural people with nonfarm employment rose 0.5% to 301.15 million, of which 180 million were migrants working away from home in 2025. Their average monthly earnings were RMB 5,075 (about $725), an increase of just 2.5%.
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