Subsidies prompted record-high cotton planting in China's Xinjiang region this year despite declining farm prices. Imports of cotton from Brazil fell dramatically. Imports from China's new friends in Africa and Central Asia also plummeted. U.S. cotton has been mostly frozen out of China's market since the trade war began.
China's 2025 cotton output reached 6.641 million metric tons, up 477,000 metric tons from the previous year, a 7.7% increase. The increase in output reflected a 5% increase in area planted (up 140,900 hectares) and a 2.6% increase in yield (up 57.4 kg/ha). Data were released by China's National Bureau of Statistics in the 2025 cotton production communique.
This year was China's second successive annual increase in cotton production and the highest value since output dropped below 7 mmt in 2009. China's record cotton production was 7.6 mmt in 2007.
Xinjiang Autonomous Region accounted for all of the boost in China's cotton output. Xinjiang produced 6.165 mmt, up 479,000 metric tons from last year. Xinjiang accounted for 93% of China's cotton output and 87% of area planted in cotton in 2025. The second-leading provinces were Shandong (output 128,000 metric tons), Hubei (9,200 mt), and Hunan (8,500 mt).
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| Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics. |
China's cotton planting has collapsed in regions outside of Xinjiang since the 2007 peak. In contrast, area planted rose gradually in Xinjiang during 2009-18 and then stabilized at roughly 2.5 million hectares. After 2 years of expansion, the 2.59 million hectares planted in 2025 is a record for Xinjiang.
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| Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics. |
A Statistician from China's Statistics Bureau explained that Xinjiang is amenable to large-scale farms, is highly mechanized, and the "target price" in Xinjiang was relatively high this year, incentivizing production and prompting 2 years of expansion in area planted. (A subsidy proportional to the difference between the market price and a target of RMB 18,600 is given to Xinjiang farmers.) The statistician explained that relative returns to cotton are low in other regions of China, causing cotton area to shrink outside of Xinjiang. The statistician cited favorable weather, good field management and improved varieties for high yields in Xinjiang.
China's cotton imports during the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 887,718 metric tons, down dramatically from 2.473 million metric tons during the same period in 2024. Imports from both of the top suppliers crashed. The 11-month total of China's cotton imports from Brazil plummeted from over 1 mmt during 2024 to just 358,000 metric tons in 2025. Imports from the United States fell from 865,000 metric tons during Jan-Nov 2024 to 106,000 metric tons in Jan-Nov 2025. Imports from Australia and Turkiye were steady but imports from most other countries declined.
China's imports of cotton from 18 African countries shrank from over 60,000 metric tons in Jan-Nov 2024 to 25,000 metric tons this year. Imports from 4 Central Asian neighbors fell from 44,000 metric tons to 20,000 metric tons.
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| Compiled from China customs administration data. |
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| Compiled from China customs administration data. |
The expansion of cotton production in Xinjiang during the 2024 and 2025 harvest seasons (August-September) was accompanied by declines in Chinese cotton prices. These declines followed a surge in farm prices at harvest in 2023 and a bump in prices paid by companies that year--indicating a relatively tight cotton supply. The modest rebound in imports during August-November 2025 comes despite the increase in output this year and another drop in domestic prices.
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| Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics and customs data. |
Note that the "target price" of RMB 18,600 per ton (constant during 2023-25) exceeds the unit value of imported cotton by more than RMB 4300. Subsidies incentivize production in Xinjiang even when the price of imported cotton is falling. Moreover, declining cotton prices are not necessarily a big deterrent to production in Xinjiang if farmers are assured of a higher subsidy. (Note the farm price is a seed cotton price which is lower than the price of lint cotton. The seed cotton price is converted to a lint-equivalent price to calculate the subsidy based on its spread versus the target price which is also for lint cotton). The target price subsidy does not operate outside Xinjiang.
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