China 2025 Grain Output Data; Corn Accounts For Most of Increase

China produced another record grain crop of 714.88 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Production increased 8.38 mmt (+1.2%) from last year. As usual, corn accounted for most of the increase. The Bureau acknowledged the impact of mold on the Fall harvest but the statisticians have no way of measuring how much mold and resulting aflatoxins will impact the effective supply of corn this year.

Corn production was estimated at 301.235 mmt for 2025, and this year's 6.32 mmt increase in corn output accounted for most of the increase in grain output. Rice production (209 mmt in 2025) increased 1.5 mmt from last year. Wheat production (140 mmt) decreased slightly (-250,000 metric tons). 

Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics.

Most of the increase in grain output was achieved by increasing average yields by 66 kg per hectare (up 1.1%) over the previous year. Grain area expanded 90,000 hectares (up 0.1%). There was a slight shift toward corn area (up 0.5%) but increases in corn yield (up 108 kg per hectare, +0.5%) accounted for most of the increase in corn output. The Bureau said that the increased area planted in corn (which has a relatively high yield) contributed to the increase in overall grain output. The Bureau noted that northeastern provinces (the main corn-producing area) contributed most of the increase in grain output.

The NBS corn output figure was even larger than the 300 mmt previously estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs CASDE earlier this week. The NBS soybean output figure almost exactly matches the MARA estimate. 

The Bureau's lead agricultural statistician attributed the bumper harvest to "strict protection of grain area and food security responsibility by each region," "overcoming impacts of drought, floods and other natural disasters," and "no slacking off on grain production work." According to the Bureau, policy support mobilized farmers and local officials to keep a tight hold on grin production: 

• continuing to raise the support price for wheat and early rice, 
• improving each kind of subsidy policy, 
• expanding full-cost and income insurance, 
• launching a mechanism for grain deficit regions to compensate grain surplus regions, and 
• increased financial support for grain-producing counties. 
• Local authorities have strengthened protection of grain land, shifted the mix of crops, carried out land rectifications, increased the use of abandoned land and reclaimed unused land.

This blog previously discussed the impact on rains in September-October, showed images of fields and ears of corn, and discussed how the effective supply of corn has been reduced despite the "bumper harvest." The Bureau could not dodge this issue, and its report acknowledged that continuous heavy rains in the Huang-Huai Hai region of northern China caused molding that affected grain production "to a certain degree." The Bureau claimed that after taking into account the impact of mold on output fall-harvested grain output still grew by 8.2 mmt (+1.5%). The Bureau did not reveal the impact of mold on grain output, nor how they estimated it. The Bureau's surveys weigh grains cut from fields before harvest. The high degree of moisture would have increased the weight of crops. They have no way of knowing which fields were not harvested nor how much grain was dried or developed mold post-harvest.