Skip to main content

China's Food Prices Under Downward Pressure

The food component of China's CPI for September 2025 was down -4.4% from a year ago, while the nonfood component was up 0.7%, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics. The overall CPI was down -0.3% from a year ago.

Prices were down from a year ago for most food categories. Pork (-17%), vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%) stood out with the largest year-over-year declines in price. Fresh fruit (-4.2%), edible oils and milk (both -1.4%) and grains (-0.7%) were also down year-over-year. 


While food prices in September were down from a year ago, prices were up 0.7% from the previous month (August). Vegetables, eggs, and fruit were up from the previous month.

The Food CPI is cyclical. This month's year-over-year declines reflect a reversal of increases that occurred a year ago, especially for pork and vegetables. A year ago, China's Food CPI was up +3.3% in September 2024, and it was down -3.2% in September 2023. Pork, in particular, remains highly cyclical, registering a 17% decrease in September 2025, a 16% year-over year increase in September 2024, and a -22% decrease in September 2023. 

Data from China National Bureau of Statistics.

The informal title of "Consumer Pork Index" still applies due to the role of pork price fluctuations in the CPI. According to the Statistics Bureau report, the decline in vegetable prices contributed -0.35 percentage points to the overall CPI decline, pork contributed -0.26 percentage points, and eggs contributed -0.08 percentage points.

The decline in pork prices has gained momentum during October. Wholesale prices started falling in mid-September. The average price for a lean pork carcass reported at Beijing's Xinfadi market declined from RMB 8.9 per 500g on September 9 to RMB 7.4 per 500g on October 18, a cumulative decline of nearly 17% in about 5 weeks. A number of videos on Chinese social media marvel at incredibly low pork prices in consumer markets around the country.

Average price for a lean pork carcass, Beijing Xinfadi.com.cn.

Industrial prices in September were down year-over-year: the producer price index for industrial products ex-factory was down -2.3% from a year ago. The index of raw material prices was down -3.1% year-over-year. 

The industrial producer price index for food products ex-factory was down -1.7% year-over-year in September. The textile industry PPI was down -2.4% and the clothing and apparel PPI was down -0.6% from a year ago. 

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...
15 comments
Read more

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...
Post a Comment
Read more

Feed Boom & Cratering Grain Imports; China Leaves Us Guessing

In the first half of 2025 China increased its meat and egg production by a combined 1.58 million metric tons (mmt) from a year earlier, a moderate increase of 2.5%. Meanwhile, animal feed output during H1 2025 compiled from feed industry association reports increased by 14.5 mmt (+10 percent) from a year ago. China's 14.5-mmt increase feed output growth outpaced the 1.58-mmt growth in meat production by a ratio of 9:1. It's hard to make sense of these inconsistent figures.  [note: The June 2025 feed industry association report has a 7.7% yoy growth rate for feed output which is inconsistent with the 10.1% growth shown here calculated by comparing data from monthly reports issued last year. Growth rates for complete feed were 8.1%, concentrates -1.5%; additives 6.9%. These inconsistencies are common in the feed industry association reports, a reason for doubting the accuracy of this data.] There is no boom in demand for feed ingredients to fuel a huge increase in feed production...
Post a Comment
Read more