China's swine industry is struggling with an epidemic of Getah Virus, also known as GETV (盖塔病毒). One video posted on Chinese social media calls GETV "The biggest crisis since African swine fever."
The mosquito-borne virus can infect entire farms, causing diarrhea, staggering movements, and discoloration of skin. It causes sows to abort and reduces survival rates of weaned piglets. An article appearing in mid-September reported that the virus had been detected on pig farms in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, and Sichuan Provinces. It has also appeared in Hebei. Most information about the current outbreak comes from farmers posting short videos on Douyin (China's Tick Tock) about GETV outbreaks and sharing guidance for avoiding it. Videos posted as recently as yesterday show barns filled with dead pigs, excavators dumping live pigs into burial pits, sows with blotches on their skin, and pigs staggering around a pen.
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| Thumbnails of videos about GETV outbreaks posted on Douyin yesterday. |
The GETV outbreak does not appear to be mentioned in any official news media, pig industry websites, or market analysis reports. Last month's article cited monitoring by China's Animal Health and Epidemiology Center as showing that GETV is spreading, but I cannot even find a web site or any online reports by this organization. Today, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a videoconference on upgrading work on swine quarantine and slaughterhouse monitoring, but there was no mention of GETV or any other specific disease. Local officials were ordered to take prompt action and proactive measures to improve animal disease prevention, find new ways to supervise slaughter in small facilities, and plan work for the New Year and Spring Festival holidays.
Getah Virus was first discovered in mosquitos around Malaysian rubber plantations in 1955 (Getah is the Malay word for "rubber") and has since spread across Eurasia and the Pacific region, evolving into multiple strains. Worldiwde, the virus is more common in horses (for whom it is not lethal) than in pigs. GETV does not cause illness in humans, but antibodies against the virus have been found in humans.
The virus was first isolated in China during 1964. Scientists in China have published dozens of academic studies of the virus. Scientific papers indicate the virus has impacted commercial swine in China for years, including a study that found 1.3% of samples collected in Shandong Province during 2022-23 were infected and an epidemiological study using samples collected from 16 provinces in 2021-22. A July 2025 paper published in the scientific journal Virulence documented an epidemic of GETV on farms in 21 of 157 counties in Henan Province during July to September 2024. The Henan study's authors speculated that last year's spread of the virus could have been even wider than they had detected. This year's epidemic also began in Henan and has spread to at least four other provinces.
The Virulence study's authors reported that the 2024 outbreak originated in Nanyang, a region of Henan that also happens to be headquarters for China's largest swine-producing company. The authors also warned obliquely that small farmers purchasing pigs from large companies is a practice that heightens the risk of transmission. The stern warnings issued to large hog companies over the last 5 months to ban selling pigs for "secondary fattening" may have actually been meant to stop the spread of GETV (it was described as a measure to reduce excess supply).
The spread of GETV is linked to mosquito activity which explains its concentration during summer months in southern provinces. Mosquito density 25% higher than normal following this year's extensive typhoons and flooding may have contributed to this year's GETV epidemic.
It is common for early information about epidemics to be spread by anecdote. In past epidemics authorities covered them up until they no longer could be hidden. In 2018, the African swine fever virus had been circulating in China for 2-to-3 months before the first official case was announced in August of that year. PRRS ("blue ear virus") spread for about a year in 2006-07 before it became a national crisis in the Spring months of 2007.
The usual pattern is for pork prices to fall in the outbreak's initial phase as pigs are culled en masse and infected pigs are illegally slaughtered and sold in the market. The GETV outbreak may be partially responsible for crashing pork prices this fall. The November 2025 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell nearly 20% between August and mid-October. After the first round of sow deaths/culls impacts supplies 6-to-8 months later pork prices skyrocket. Hog contracts for 2026 also declined sharply over the last 2 months but the September 2026 contract is trading at a 23% premium over the November 2025 contract.
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| November hog futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange |
This virus appears to be mosquito-borne. On one hand, heavy rains across northern China and resulting standing water could contribute to spread to northern provinces. On the other hand, cold weather could bring some relief by reducing mosquito populations. Big swine producing companies raising pigs in enclosed buildings claim to be free of the virus. The current outbreak is likely to add momentum to the consolidation trend that is pushing independent hog producers out of the business.
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