Most changes were made in the corn estimates. 2016/17 corn production was raised 1.05 million metric tons (mmt), to 214.65 mmt. Corn consumption was raised 450,000 metric tons, to 210.72 mmt. The carry-out was increased by 600,000 mt. CASDE forecasts China's 2016/17 corn inventory to expand by 4.43 mmt. Imports are kept at a minimum level of 1 mmt for 2016/17.
CASDE revised upward their view of the 2016/17 corn crop. They raised harvested area to 36.016 million hectares, essentially equal to their planted area of 36.026 mil. ha. The yield was also revised upward to 5960 kg/ha from last month's 5935 kg/ha estimate. Compared with last year, CASDE estimates that 2016/17 corn area and yield are both down from 2015/16. The estimate of China's corn output for 2016/17 is down 4.4 percent from 2015/16, yet the inventory is still expected to increase this year.
CASDE increased their estimate of corn consumption for food (100,000 mt), feed (50,000 mt) and industrial use (300,000) mt. CASDE attributed the increase in industrial use to lower corn prices and better profits for starch and alcohol manufacturers.
| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, December 2016) | ||||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Nov. | 2016/17 Dec. | ||
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 36,026 | 36,026 | ||
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 35,990 | 36,016 | ||
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5,892 | 5,935 | 5,960 | ||
| Production | MMT | 224.58 | 213.6 | 214.65 | ||
| Imports | MMT | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Consumption | MMT | 194.05 | 210.27 | 210.72 | ||
| --Food | MMT | 7.65 | 7.72 | 7.82 | ||
| --Feed | MMT | 121.01 | 133.48 | 133.53 | ||
| --Industrial use | MMT | 54.17 | 57.45 | 57.75 | ||
| --Seed | MMT | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.61 | ||
| Loss and other | MMT | 9.56 | 10.01 | 10.01 | ||
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||
| Surplus | MMT | 33.72 | 3.83 | 4.43 | ||
The CASDE write-up on soybeans emphasizes the effect of a September regulation that raised trucking costs and reduced shipments of domestic soybeans from the northeast (the report's discussion of corn does not mention this, although other sources say transportation costs and bottlenecks are slowing domestic shipments of corn). Processors have raised their soybean purchase prices, CASDE says. China's National Grain Reserve Corporation (Sinograin) has also raised its procurement price to replenish reserves, CASDE says, causing other buyers to raise prices. CASDE raised its forecasted interval for domestic soybeans by 100 yuan to 4450-4650 yuan/metric ton. The C&F price of imported soybeans is 3250-3450 yuan/mt. CASDE has not changed its 2016/17 estimate of imports--still 85.3 mmt.
| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, December 2016) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Nov. | 2016/17 Dec |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,156 | 7,156 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,150 | 7,150 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,762 | 1,748 | 1,748 |
| Production | MMT | 11.6 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| Imports | MMT | 83.2 | 85.3 | 85.3 |
| Consumption | MMT | 96.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 82.9 | 85.5 | 85.5 |
| --Food | MMT | 10.4 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
Only minor changes were made in CASDE's cotton balance sheet, including small reductions in yield and imports for 2016/17. Cotton imports were shaved from 960,000 mt to 900,000 mt. China's cotton imports are down as authorities issue only the bare minimum of tariff rate quota for the second year in a row. China continues to slowly unwind its cotton inventory. CASDE expects 2.05 mmt of cotton inventories to be injected into the market during 2016/17, but the carry-out will still be 9.18 mmt, still a very high stocks-use ratio of 122 percent.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, December 2016) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Nov. | 2016/17 Dec |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 12.8 | 11.11 | 11.11 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 3,267 | 3,100 | 3,100 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,510 | 1,526 | 1,523 |
| Production | MMT | 4.93 | 4.73 | 4.72 |
| Imports | MMT | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.54 | 7.52 | 7.54 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 11.13 | 9.27 | 9.18 |
Only minor changes were made in the edible oils balance sheets and no changes were made in the sugar S&D.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, December 2016) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Nov. | 2016/17 Dec |
| Production | MMT | 25.3 | 25.81 | 25.79 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 14.74 | 15.17 | 15.16 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.6 | 5.55 | 5.55 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3.01 | 3.18 | 3.18 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.81 | 5.50 | 5.55 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.39 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.17 | 31.38 | 31.41 |
| --Urban | MMT | 20.41 | 20.55 | 20.8 |
| --Rural | MMT | 10.76 | 10.83 | 10.61 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, December 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1423 | 1433 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1295 | 1270 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 128 | 163 |
| Yield | |||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60.3 | 60 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 53.85 | 52.5 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 7.85 | 8.85 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Imports | MMT | 3.73 | 3.5 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15.2 | 15 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -2.92 | -1.67 |
This CASDE report was issued December 5, a week earlier than the scheduled December 12 release. The report updated the list of scheduled release dates for 2017, with the next report due January 12, 2017.
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