According to the latest issue of China Livestock and Veterinary Bulletin, Liu Xiaoyu, chairman of COFCO's feed department and vice-chair of the China Feed Association, estimated this year’s feed production may surpass 150 million metric tons (mmt). The increased demand contributes to the recent increase in corn demand and increased corn prices and volatility.
China’s feed output last year was 148 mmt. Liu estimates that national feed production will rise to 250 mmt by 2020. That's an increase of 100 mmt, or 10 mmt per year!
Liu said, “COFCO’s feed output now is 700,000-800,000 mt, and could rise to 6 mmt in five years.” While COFCO is a huge player in China's grain and feed market, this number suggests that it accounts for a tiny share of feed output.
As for this year’s surging price of corn and other agricultural commodities, Liu says it was related to extreme weather, natural disasters, worries in the market about corn production, plus inflationary expectations. However, he adds that China’s corn supply and demand are still overall balanced.