2010 Grain Output Announced

Today the National Bureau of Statistics announced its estimate of grain production for 2010.

"According to sample surveys and complete statistics" grain output for 2010 totaled 546.41 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 2.9% from last year. Sown area in grain totaled 109.872 million hectares, an increase of 886,000 ha or 0.8% from last year.

Grain yield was 4973 kg/ha, up 103 kg. which I calculate to be a 2% increase. The report attributes the yield increase partly to a 1.3-million-hectare expansion of corn, a crop with high yields.

Overall, 20 provinces had increases in grain production and 11 had decreases. In the thirteen primary grain producing provinces 2010 grain output was 411.85 mmt, up 14.75 mmt or 3.7% from last year.

Most of the increase in this year's production was in the northeastern provinces (Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang) and Inner Mongolia. This region's grain production was up 13.93 mmt, an increase of 13.4%. Total output for the four northeastern provinces was 117.79 mmt. The report says that the increase in northeastern production was relatively large because the region recovered from a drought that cut production by 8 mmt last year (in 2009).

The southwestern provinces had a very serious drought this year during the winter and spring. In the three provinces hit hardest by the drought--Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan--their combined early rice production fell by 2 mmt, but their fall grain crop was up 433,000 mt.

Jiangxi and Hunan also had decreased production due to "disasters."

Summer grain (mainly wheat and early-season rice) output fell due to the southwestern drought, but fall grain production was up, bolstered mainly by the recoveryin the northeast. Summer grain was planted on 27.421 million hectares, an increase of 38,400 hectares but summer grain output was 123.1 mmt, down 390,000 mt. Early rice area was 5.794 mil ha, a decrease of 76,100 ha and early rice production was 31.32 mmt, a decrease of 204,000 mt. Fall grain area was 76.657 mil ha, an increase of 924,000 ha. Preliminary statistics show that fall grain output was 391.99 mmt, an increase of 18.01 mmt.