Skip to main content

China's farm subsidy panacea

Chinese officials see subsidies as the magic cure for all problems in agriculture. Virtually all reports by government analysts conclude with a section that usually recommends more or better subsidies. Another common theme in news media and government reports is that subsidies give American farmers their advantage, so Chinese farmers need to have subsidies too.

China introduced direct farm subsidies and price supports in 2004, and since then they have multiplied in the number of subsidies offered and the amount of money. China's subsidies are now comparable to those of the United States in total spending and dollars per acre.

The subsidies are basically trying to counteract market forces by paying farmers to plant grain crops that produce little income. This is becoming more difficult as the markets for land, labor, and credit improve. Labor markets for rural people are well-established and wages are rising. Even land markets are developing, despite the lack of land ownership and weak property rights. The rental market for farmland is establishing rents for different types of rural land and they are also rising. As farmers learn the opportunity cost of their labor and land, they are less inclined to plant grain.

The government, therefore, has had to offer more and more subsidies and keep raising grain prices to entice farmers to plant grain.

Cost of production survey reports are picking up an interesting theme of rising land costs linked to increasing subsidies and rising grain prices. A detailed treatment of estimating the land component of farm production costs in Jiangsu Province in 2005 noted that the reduction of agricultural taxes and rising grain prices had led to rising land rental rates. The study also reported that land rental rates differed depending on the use of the land. Grain land had rented for 150 yuan three years earlier, but rent had risen to 300 yuan in 2005. Land for flowers or fruit trees commanded higher rent. The report said that 1000 mu had been leased to a Hong Kong company to grow vegetables at 300 yuan per mu. Land with greenhouses rented for 580 yuan.

These rents are the equivalent of $130 to $260 per acre, far higher than the average rent for U.S. cropland, currently about $90 per acre.

Rents are also high in more remote agricultural areas of China. In Nanyang, Henan Province, the average rent for wheat land is reported to be 106 yuan/mu in 2010--about $95 per acre--and up 12% from last year. In Songzi, southwestern Hubei Province, rice land cost is estimated at 90.8 yuan/mu, up 6.8% from the previous year.

Subsidies started out with a payment of 10 yuan per mu in 2004. Since then, they have risen to about 80 yuan per mu for wheat land in Henan.

A number of reports point out that, even with the subsidies, land planted in grain earns much less than if it's planted in vegetables or other crops. In Chibi City there is consternation that many farmers take the subsidy funds, then rent the land to someone else to grow vegetables or leave it abandoned to work off-farm. This phenomenon is common, and there are many suggestions to link subsidy payments to actual production or marketings of grain.

The Chibi report also notes that farmers can earn a comfortable living with a larger scale operation. Most farmers are allocated 3 to 10 mu of land, but the report points out that two people can easily farm 30 mu (less than 5 acres) and get an income of 12,000 to 15,000 yuan. This is hard to do, because land markets are still underdeveloped. The few who do farm 30 mu can't assemble a continguous piece of land and leases may be only year to year, so it's hard to exploit economies of size.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...

Feed Boom & Cratering Grain Imports; China Leaves Us Guessing

In the first half of 2025 China increased its meat and egg production by a combined 1.58 million metric tons (mmt) from a year earlier, a moderate increase of 2.5%. Meanwhile, animal feed output during H1 2025 compiled from feed industry association reports increased by 14.5 mmt (+10 percent) from a year ago. China's 14.5-mmt increase feed output growth outpaced the 1.58-mmt growth in meat production by a ratio of 9:1. It's hard to make sense of these inconsistent figures.  [note: The June 2025 feed industry association report has a 7.7% yoy growth rate for feed output which is inconsistent with the 10.1% growth shown here calculated by comparing data from monthly reports issued last year. Growth rates for complete feed were 8.1%, concentrates -1.5%; additives 6.9%. These inconsistencies are common in the feed industry association reports, a reason for doubting the accuracy of this data.] There is no boom in demand for feed ingredients to fuel a huge increase in feed production...