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Record Hog Production Q1 2026; Wheat Crop Improves; Corn Planting to Increase

China's GDP grew 5% year over year in Q1 2026, according to a National Bureau of Statistics report that provided its invariably upbeat rundown of first quarter economic data. Primary sector GDP--which includes agriculture--grew 3.8%. In March 2026 the urban unemployment rate was reported to be 5.4% while the rate for rural migrants was 5.7%. 

The Bureau's Q1 2026 report focusing on the agricultural economy led off with a claim that the winter wheat crop has overcome the impacts of last Fall's heavy rains that seriously impeded planting of the crop. The Bureau's agricultural statistician claimed that the area planted in winter wheat is stable and the crop's condition has improved due to warm weather, adequate rainfall and soil moisture this Spring. The Bureau claimed that the crop has been bolstered by measures orders issued to local officials to fertilize wheat seedlings and farmers were encouraged by an increase in the minimum price for wheat (in fact, the minimum price for wheat this year was set in 2024 with no change this year). The Bureau claimed that remote sensing data indicates the status of the wheat crop is similar to last year (they did not mention there was a drought last year).

The Bureau reported that planting intentions for wheat and rice are stable, while corn area is expected to increase. The Bureau said spring cultivation is progressing smoothly, and input supplies are adequate. No mention of the increase in fuel and pesticide prices. 

Agricultural producer prices for crops in Q1 were up 1.5% y-o-y, while prices for livestock were down 7.9%. The steep decline in hog prices was partially offset by an increase in cattle and sheep prices. Corn, wheat, rice and soybean prices have been rising since Q4 2025.

Hog slaughter in Q1 2026 was a record 200.26 million head, up 2.8% from a year ago. Pork output was 16.69 mmt, up 4.2% y-o-y. The average hog carcass weight was 83.3 kg, up more than 1kg y-o-y. The sow inventory was 39.04 million head, down 1.35 million y-o-y. 

Poultry meat output was also up 9.3% y-o-y and the number of poultry slaughtered was up 7.5%. Cattle and sheep slaughter were both down 3%, but beef production was down only 1.4% y-o-y and mutton production was down 2% y-o-y. Egg production was down 3.1%. Milk production increased 3.4% y-o-y.

Calculations from China National Bureau of Statistics reports.

Calculations from China National Bureau of Statistics reports.



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