Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

"Poultry farming is no longer about merely raising chickens, but about operating a modern, equipment- and technology-intensive factory." This quote from a MySteel commentary on the expansion of egg-laying capacity  earlier this month is the leading edge of a factory-style (工厂化) overhaul of farming underway at China's grass roots as part of Xi Jinping's "high-quality development" push. The rapid expansion of production capacity in a saturated egg market drives down prices, so sustainability relies on pushing small scale producers out of the market. Much of the expansion is in regions that lack feed resources, perpetuating China's reliance on imported feed grains and soybeans. Between 2023 and 2026 at least 123 new laying hen projects representing 260 million birds were signed, initiated or brought online in China. The expansion peaked with 73 new projects launched in 2024. A crash in egg prices during 2025 did not stop the expansion, as 12 new projects we...

The U.S. has high egg prices in the shadow of last year's avian influenza, but China has a surplus of laying hens attracted by strong profits that have now turned into losses.  U.S. egg prices are at less than half their March 2025 peak, but they are still at an historically high level. A USDA analysis shows that the spike in U.S. egg prices coincided with an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The loss of over 50 million laying hens coincided with the peak holiday demand season, sending prices skyrocketing. The price spike in 2022 followed an earlier HPAI outbreak.  Egg prices in the U.S. and China have been diverging. Egg prices in China and the U.S. were roughly equal until 2021 when an earlier HPAI outbreak led to a spike in U.S. prices. After the impacts of that outbreak dissipated, China and U.S. prices were briefly at parity again in 2023. Prices diverged again as the HPAI outbreak began driving U.S. egg prices skyward and Chinese egg prices tumbled. The ave...

High egg prices are a hot topic in the United States. China, in contrast, has a glut of eggs and depressed prices.  The March 14, 2025 USDA Agricultural Marketing Service weekly eggs market overview reported that U.S. egg prices continued declining during the second week of March as the supply situation improved. No significant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have occurred in March and U.S. egg demand is relatively light. The average U.S. wholesale price for Grade A large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen, down sharply from their February peak.  Until 2021, Chinese and U.S. wholesale egg prices had been roughly equal at about $1-to-$2 per dozen with no trend. U.S. prices fluctuated more than Chinese prices, so the U.S. price was sometimes higher, sometimes lower than the Chinese price after converting them to dollars per dozen.  Chinese prices converted using monthly exchange rate and assuming 0.6 kg per dozen. Sources: USDA and China Ministry of Agricult...